105 Old Lyme Dr #3 · University at Buffalo, NY 14221

$151,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,078 sqft · Condo public records · 165 Days on market

Built 1966 $395/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a BRIGHT SPACIOUS welcoming home? This freshly painted WONDERFUL condo has windows on three sides capturing the sun & light all day! A common entrance, steps from parking, leads to four units. Yours, is up a flight, on the right. The door opens to a large L-shaped living & dining area plus a fully applianced eat-in kitchen with pantry. A hall, with linen closet, leads to the main bath, & two well-sized bedrooms. Closet space is plentiful throughout. The potential is LIMITLESS! You have your own oversized storage space in the basement, along with your own washer, dryer, & mechanics. The AC was replaced in 2016. Just a short walk to the bus stop, stores & restaurants, the location is excellent! Bring your idea book & get ready to place your furniture! Just move right in & ENJOY!

Key facts

• Washer and dryer
• 2nd floor end unit
• $395 HOA

Tags

• 2ND FLOOR END UNIT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• UPDATED TILE BACKSPLASH
• EXTRA EAST FACING WINDOW
• PRIVATE SECURE STORAGE
• WASHER AND DRYER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $152k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $232 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $152k).
• Recommended offer: $134k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 2.8% in University at Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#9 in NY, #176 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D+, employment F.
• Williamsville Central School District (suburban): math 64% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #114 of 590 in NY (top 19%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.0%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.0% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 165 days — a 12% lower offer ($134k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $152k implies a 95% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $133,759 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 165 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.12%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.54%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-5,376
• Equity at exit: $22,664

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $33,440
• Equity at exit: $13,142

Cash invested: $42,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14221

• Rents YoY: 5.0%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,054 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$797
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,624/yr
• Insurance: −$63
• HOA: −$395
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$431
• Net cashflow: $232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,760

Max offer price $151,999

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $318	-5% $275	+0% $232	+5% $189	+10% $146
Rent	-10% $70	-5% $151	+0% $232	+5% $313	+10% $394
Rate	-1.0pp $309	-0.5pp $271	base $232	+0.5pp $193	+1.0pp $153

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,000
• Closing costs: $4,560
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1325 N Forest Rd Buffalo, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0	870	$1,748	$2.01	2d	9	0.28mi
116 Segsbury Rd Buffalo, NY	3.0	2.0	1488	$2,950	$1.98	24d	1	0.65mi
990 Hopkins Rd Unit G Buffalo, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,200	$2.00	11d	1	1.06mi
540 Mill St Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.5	1300	$2,095	$1.61	2d	1	1.23mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $395 · $4,740/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-15
   price $151,999
3. 2026-03-16
   price $155,900
4. 2026-02-02
   price $159,900
5. 2025-11-06
   listed $163,900 Active
6. 2019-06-17
   soldstatus $78,000 Closed Sale or Rented 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Looking for a BRIGHT SPACIOUS welcoming home? This freshly painted WONDERFUL condo has windows on three sides capturing the sun & light all day! A common entrance, steps from parking, leads to four units. Yours, is up a flight, on the right. The door opens to a large L-shaped living & dining area plus a fully applianced eat-in kitchen with pantry. A hall, with linen closet, leads to the main bath, & two well-sized bedrooms. Closet space is plentiful throughout. The potential is LIMITLESS! You have your own oversized storage space in the basement, along with your own washer, dryer, & mechanics. The AC was replaced in 2016. Just a short walk to the bus stop, stores & restaurants, the location is excellent! Bring your idea book & get ready to place your furniture! Just move right in & ENJOY!

7. 2019-06-17
   soldstatus $78,000

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Looking for a BRIGHT SPACIOUS welcoming home? This freshly painted WONDERFUL condo has windows on three sides capturing the sun & light all day! A common entrance, steps from parking, leads to four units. Yours, is up a flight, on the right. The door opens to a large L-shaped living & dining area plus a fully applianced eat-in kitchen with pantry. A hall, with linen closet, leads to the main bath, & two well-sized bedrooms. Closet space is plentiful throughout. The potential is LIMITLESS! You have your own oversized storage space in the basement, along with your own washer, dryer, & mechanics. The AC was replaced in 2016. Just a short walk to the bus stop, stores & restaurants, the location is excellent! Bring your idea book & get ready to place your furniture! Just move right in & ENJOY!

8. 2019-05-02
   status Pending Sale 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Looking for a BRIGHT SPACIOUS welcoming home? This freshly painted WONDERFUL condo has windows on three sides capturing the sun & light all day! A common entrance, steps from parking, leads to four units. Yours, is up a flight, on the right. The door opens to a large L-shaped living & dining area plus a fully applianced eat-in kitchen with pantry. A hall, with linen closet, leads to the main bath, & two well-sized bedrooms. Closet space is plentiful throughout. The potential is LIMITLESS! You have your own oversized storage space in the basement, along with your own washer, dryer, & mechanics. The AC was replaced in 2016. Just a short walk to the bus stop, stores & restaurants, the location is excellent! Bring your idea book & get ready to place your furniture! Just move right in & ENJOY!

9. 2019-04-19
   status Under Contract- Do Not Show 839-char remark

   Show marketing remark (839 chars)

   Looking for a BRIGHT SPACIOUS welcoming home? This freshly painted WONDERFUL condo has windows on three sides capturing the sun & light all day! A common entrance, steps from parking, leads to four units. Yours, is up a flight, on the right. The door opens to a large L-shaped living & dining area plus a fully applianced eat-in kitchen with pantry. A hall, with linen closet, leads to the main bath, & two well-sized bedrooms. Closet space is plentiful throughout. The potential is LIMITLESS! You have your own oversized storage space in the basement, along with your own washer, dryer, & mechanics. The AC was replaced in 2016. Just a short walk to the bus stop, stores & restaurants, the location is excellent! Bring your idea book & get ready to place your furniture! Just move right in & ENJOY!

10. 2019-04-08
    price $84,900 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Looking for a BRIGHT SPACIOUS welcoming home? This freshly painted WONDERFUL condo has windows on three sides capturing the sun & light all day! A common entrance, steps from parking, leads to four units. Yours, is up a flight, on the right. The door opens to a large L-shaped living & dining area plus a fully applianced eat-in kitchen with pantry. A hall, with linen closet, leads to the main bath, & two well-sized bedrooms. Closet space is plentiful throughout. The potential is LIMITLESS! You have your own oversized storage space in the basement, along with your own washer, dryer, & mechanics. The AC was replaced in 2016. Just a short walk to the bus stop, stores & restaurants, the location is excellent! Bring your idea book & get ready to place your furniture! Just move right in & ENJOY!

11. 2019-03-25
    listed $89,900 Active 839-char remark

    Show marketing remark (839 chars)

    Looking for a BRIGHT SPACIOUS welcoming home? This freshly painted WONDERFUL condo has windows on three sides capturing the sun & light all day! A common entrance, steps from parking, leads to four units. Yours, is up a flight, on the right. The door opens to a large L-shaped living & dining area plus a fully applianced eat-in kitchen with pantry. A hall, with linen closet, leads to the main bath, & two well-sized bedrooms. Closet space is plentiful throughout. The potential is LIMITLESS! You have your own oversized storage space in the basement, along with your own washer, dryer, & mechanics. The AC was replaced in 2016. Just a short walk to the bus stop, stores & restaurants, the location is excellent! Bring your idea book & get ready to place your furniture! Just move right in & ENJOY!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,624 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,096 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: +$473/yr (+$39/mo · 29.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,649
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,514
• − Property taxes: −$1,624
• − Insurance: −$760
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,972
• − Management: −$1,972
• − HOA: −$4,740
• − Depreciation: −$4,422
• Taxable income: $646
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$155
• After-tax cash flow: $2,629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3631470
• Math proficiency: 64% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $79,907
• Composite: 62.59/100
• National rank: #678
• State rank: #114 of 590 in NY

Livability — University at Buffalo

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #176

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D+ Crime A Employment F Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 5,827
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 55,255
• Household income: $101,615
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1956.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Asian 8% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 15% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -301.37%
• Current HPI: 322.6947
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.01%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+69.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $151,999 WNYREIS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $155,900 WNYREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-11-06 Listed $163,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-06-17 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-17 Sold (MLS) $78,000 WNYREIS
• 2019-05-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-19 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2019-04-08 Price Changed $84,900 WNYREIS
• 2019-03-25 Listed $89,900 WNYREIS

Property tax history

+11.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,624 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.