517 Deadman Creek Rd

Bridger, MT 59014

$149,500C-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · Built 2007 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,236/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax + insurance: −$161
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $32/mo
• Annual: $380/yr
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.91%
• DSCR: 1.04
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $41,860

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($380/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (17.3% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $124k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#33 in MT, #4,211 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bridger K-12 Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #162 of 339 in MT (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bridger Elementary School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #197 of 293 statewide, top 71%, 118 students, 0% FRL); Bridger 7-8 (math 50% / reading 70%, 25 students, 0% FRL); Bridger High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #9 of 132 statewide, top 17%, 56 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Carbon County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.