517 Deadman Creek Rd · Bridger, MT 59014

$149,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,624 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2007 20 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.5/30.0
• Appreciation +9.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you dreaming of remote living far from bright lights and city crowds? This old cabin on 20 acres at the foot of the Pryor Mountains, miles from power and people, may fit the bill. It offers spectacular views of the east face of the Pryor Mountains that loom above you, with the Bighorn Mountains to the east and the rugged Bighorn Canyon in-between. No one lives within 20 miles of this property, only antelope, sage grouse, mule deer, wild horses, Bighorn sheep and elk on occasion. There is a 1600+ sq. foot “earthship” cabin, built in 2007 (2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths) that is in poor shape and will need significant repairs. It has not been lived in for over 5 years and has suffered greatly (see photos). Original owner reported it has a septic, but no permit is on file. Propane and wood for heat and cooking, with a well that is reported to have 1/2 gallon per minute. There is also a 400 sq. foot barn, corral area & pump house for well. It is fenced on the east side of county road. Cell phone coverage is spotty; internet would need to be by satellite. Transmission power lines run along the eastern edge of the property, but there are no nearby power lines that one could hook into. This property is remote, offering one an opportunity to escape the city lights and have a secluded cabin with spectacular views in an area seldom visited by others. Year-round access to the property with a 4x4 would be possible, but may require some snowplowing in the winter. This land is only a mile from the Bighorn Canyon National Recreation area, a treasure of public land in your backyard known for its wild horses, 1000 foot cliffs and canyons, and miles of water for boating. Lovell, Wyoming (pop 2400) is 30 miles to the south for shopping needs, while Cody (pop 10,000) is 75 miles away and has a commercial airport. The largest city in the area is Billings, Montana, which is 125 miles to the north via Lovell and Bridger, MT. With about 120,000 people Billings offers all major retail outlets, excellent regional medical facilities, as well as an International Airport. The owner will finance with at least 10% down. 20 acres a half mile to the north is also available for $69,500. Call for details.

Key facts

• Earthship cabin
• Septic
• Well

Tags

• 20 ACRES
• EARTHSHIP CABIN
• SEPTIC
• WELL
• YEAR-ROUND ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Annual tax amount listed (agent for details)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; no garage
• Utilities: Water from cistern, private source, and well; Private sewer / other sewer
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Stucco exterior
• Construction: Stucco construction; One level
• Exterior features: Fenced property; Approximately 20.11 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom; 2 main-level bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Oven and range included; No basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $32 ($380/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $124k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $124k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#33 in MT, #4,211 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Bridger K-12 Schools (rural): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #162 of 339 in MT (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bridger Elementary School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #197 of 293 statewide, top 71%, 118 students, 0% FRL); Bridger 7-8 (math 50% / reading 70%, 25 students, 0% FRL); Bridger High School (math 24% / reading 75%, grade D+, #9 of 132 statewide, top 17%, 56 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 33% district-wide (33 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 48 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.0% local appreciation)).
• Carbon County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (9.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,576 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.91%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.75×
• Total profit: $73,204
• Equity at exit: $123,831

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.06×
• Total profit: $211,839
• Equity at exit: $256,284

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Montana: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; no rent control; preempted; rural-skewed market.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 59014

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,236 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,179/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,196

Max offer price $149,500

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 33 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,500 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,500 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $149,500 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,500 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,500 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 16 DOM
15. 2026-05-15
    listed $149,500 Active 2223-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2223 chars)

    Are you dreaming of remote living far from bright lights and city crowds? This old cabin on 20 acres at the foot of the Pryor Mountains, miles from power and people, may fit the bill. It offers spectacular views of the east face of the Pryor Mountains that loom above you, with the Bighorn Mountains to the east and the rugged Bighorn Canyon in-between. No one lives within 20 miles of this property, only antelope, sage grouse, mule deer, wild horses, Bighorn sheep and elk on occasion. There is a 1600+ sq. foot “earthship” cabin, built in 2007 (2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths) that is in poor shape and will need significant repairs. It has not been lived in for over 5 years and has suffered greatly (see photos). Original owner reported it has a septic, but no permit is on file. Propane and wood for heat and cooking, with a well that is reported to have 1/2 gallon per minute. There is also a 400 sq. foot barn, corral area & pump house for well. It is fenced on the east side of county road. Cell phone coverage is spotty; internet would need to be by satellite. Transmission power lines run along the eastern edge of the property, but there are no nearby power lines that one could hook into. This property is remote, offering one an opportunity to escape the city lights and have a secluded cabin with spectacular views in an area seldom visited by others. Year-round access to the property with a 4x4 would be possible, but may require some snowplowing in the winter. This land is only a mile from the Bighorn Canyon National Recreation area, a treasure of public land in your backyard known for its wild horses, 1000 foot cliffs and canyons, and miles of water for boating. Lovell, Wyoming (pop 2400) is 30 miles to the south for shopping needs, while Cody (pop 10,000) is 75 miles away and has a commercial airport. The largest city in the area is Billings, Montana, which is 125 miles to the north via Lovell and Bridger, MT. With about 120,000 people Billings offers all major retail outlets, excellent regional medical facilities, as well as an International Airport. The owner will finance with at least 10% down. 20 acres a half mile to the north is also available for $69,500. Call for details.

16. 2026-05-15
    listed $149,500 Active 911-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2223 chars)

    Are you dreaming of remote living far from bright lights and city crowds? This old cabin on 20 acres at the foot of the Pryor Mountains, miles from power and people, may fit the bill. It offers spectacular views of the east face of the Pryor Mountains that loom above you, with the Bighorn Mountains to the east and the rugged Bighorn Canyon in-between. No one lives within 20 miles of this property, only antelope, sage grouse, mule deer, wild horses, Bighorn sheep and elk on occasion. There is a 1600+ sq. foot “earthship” cabin, built in 2007 (2 bedrooms, 1.5 baths) that is in poor shape and will need significant repairs. It has not been lived in for over 5 years and has suffered greatly (see photos). Original owner reported it has a septic, but no permit is on file. Propane and wood for heat and cooking, with a well that is reported to have 1/2 gallon per minute. There is also a 400 sq. foot barn, corral area & pump house for well. It is fenced on the east side of county road. Cell phone coverage is spotty; internet would need to be by satellite. Transmission power lines run along the eastern edge of the property, but there are no nearby power lines that one could hook into. This property is remote, offering one an opportunity to escape the city lights and have a secluded cabin with spectacular views in an area seldom visited by others. Year-round access to the property with a 4x4 would be possible, but may require some snowplowing in the winter. This land is only a mile from the Bighorn Canyon National Recreation area, a treasure of public land in your backyard known for its wild horses, 1000 foot cliffs and canyons, and miles of water for boating. Lovell, Wyoming (pop 2400) is 30 miles to the south for shopping needs, while Cody (pop 10,000) is 75 miles away and has a commercial airport. The largest city in the area is Billings, Montana, which is 125 miles to the north via Lovell and Bridger, MT. With about 120,000 people Billings offers all major retail outlets, excellent regional medical facilities, as well as an International Airport. The owner will finance with at least 10% down. 20 acres a half mile to the north is also available for $69,500. Call for details.

17. 2025-12-31
    soldstatus
18. 2025-12-09
    soldstatus
19. 2005-10-13
    soldstatus
20. 1994-02-25
    soldstatus
21. 1993-08-04
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,179 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,256 · $105/mo
• Expected delta: +$76/yr (+$6/mo · 6.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,829
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$1,179
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,186
• − Management: −$1,186
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$2,194
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$527
• After-tax cash flow: $907/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridger K-12 Schools
• NCES district ID: 3004800
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $49,975
• Composite: 34.94/100
• National rank: #9974
• State rank: #162 of 339 in MT

Livability — Bridger

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #4211

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,488

Population outlook (Carbon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,262 people
• By 2030: 11,650 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 12,287 · +9.1%
• By 2050: 12,872 · +14.3%
• By 2075: 15,400 · +36.7%
• By 2100: 17,575 · +56.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Portuguese 5% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Carbon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.4) · D 32.2% · R 64.7% · Other 3.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.9pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -32.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.4 2020: R+28.8 2016: R+32.2 2012: R+23.9 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.99%
• Current HPI: 216.6246
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.41%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology / Analytics	1	$2B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $149,500 BMTMLS
• 2026-05-15 Listed $149,500 BSCMLS
• 2025-12-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-12-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-10-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1994-02-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1993-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,179 · -21.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.