178 Birmingham Dr

Cleveland, NY 13316

$259,900F

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · Built 2017 · SingleFamily · Active · 47 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,405/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$433
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-686/mo
• Annual: $-8,230/yr
• Cap rate: 3.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.31%
• DSCR: 0.50
• 1% rule: 0.54%
• Cash to close: $72,772

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-686 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (45.9% below list).
• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $141k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,137 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Elementary School (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,816 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 602 students, 58% FRL); Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Jr/Sr High School (math 47% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,100 statewide, top 98%, 464 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?