178 Birmingham Dr · Cleveland, NY 13316

$259,900

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,950 sqft · SingleFamily · 46 Days on market

Built 2017 15 ac lot $133/sqft · 63% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +4.4/30.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

15 acres Hunting Land for sale with Brand New year-round Cabin! Access Carterville Pond (loaded with bass, pickerel, and panfish). Excellent Northern Zone Hunting and access to snowmobile trail right up the road. Brand new 2,000 square foot cabin or home. Walk-in finished basement with full bathroom, kitchen, wood stove, two storage rooms (one could be a finished bedroom). First-floor living room with large deck overlooking woodlands (second deck leading out of the man door). Two comfortable bedrooms with on the first floor along with a half bathroom. The second floor has two more finished bedrooms and half bathroom. You can sleep 10 easy in this cabin and everyone should be comfortable! Other Features include Custom Oak kitchen cabinetry, On-Demand hot water system, Custom Oak staircases.

Key facts

• 15.13 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 46 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Circuit breaker electric service; High-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Facing unspecified
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Block foundation; Has a finished full basement
• Exterior features: Deck; Gravel driveway; Leased propane tank; Shed(s) and storage; Pond (Carterville Pond); Secluded, wooded, rural lot; Rectangular frontage approximately 237 feet; Main thoroughfare road frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 half bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Hot water heat; Heating present
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Country kitchen; Sliding glass doors; Convertible bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in the basement; Electric water heater; Tankless water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-686 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $161k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (45.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,137 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Elementary School (math 19% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,816 of 2,108 statewide, top 86%, 602 students, 58% FRL); Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Jr/Sr High School (math 47% / reading 27%, grade F, #1,069 of 1,100 statewide, top 98%, 464 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($252k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 49% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $140,546 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.54% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.31%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $698,328
• List price: $259,900
• Delta: -62.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
114 N Shore Dr	0.77mi	4/1.0 (-1)	2,016 (+3%)	8mo	$575,000	$285	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $97,891
• Equity at exit: $234,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.43×
• Total profit: $322,663
• Equity at exit: $504,929

Cash invested: $72,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13316

• Home prices YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,898/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $-686

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,274

Max offer price $160,664

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-506	-5% $-596	+0% $-686	+5% $-776	+10% $-865
Rent	-10% $-797	-5% $-741	+0% $-686	+5% $-630	+10% $-575
Rate	-1.0pp $-555	-0.5pp $-620	base $-686	+0.5pp $-753	+1.0pp $-822

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,975
• Closing costs: $7,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 46 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $259,900 Active 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,900 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,900 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,900 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,900 Active 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,900 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $259,900 Active 37 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,900 Active 34 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $259,900 Active 33 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $259,900 Active 32 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $259,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,900 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,900 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,900 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,900 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    listed $259,900 Active 1558-char remark
18. 2020-09-11
    soldstatus $174,997 Closed Sale or Rented 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    15 acres Hunting Land for sale with Brand New year-round Cabin! Access Carterville Pond (loaded with bass, pickerel, and panfish). Excellent Northern Zone Hunting and access to snowmobile trail right up the road. Brand new 2,000 square foot cabin or home. Walk-in finished basement with full bathroom, kitchen, wood stove, two storage rooms (one could be a finished bedroom). First-floor living room with large deck overlooking woodlands (second deck leading out of the man door). Two comfortable bedrooms with on the first floor along with a half bathroom. The second floor has two more finished bedrooms and half bathroom. You can sleep 10 easy in this cabin and everyone should be comfortable! Other Features include Custom Oak kitchen cabinetry, On-Demand hot water system, Custom Oak staircases.

19. 2020-07-07
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    15 acres Hunting Land for sale with Brand New year-round Cabin! Access Carterville Pond (loaded with bass, pickerel, and panfish). Excellent Northern Zone Hunting and access to snowmobile trail right up the road. Brand new 2,000 square foot cabin or home. Walk-in finished basement with full bathroom, kitchen, wood stove, two storage rooms (one could be a finished bedroom). First-floor living room with large deck overlooking woodlands (second deck leading out of the man door). Two comfortable bedrooms with on the first floor along with a half bathroom. The second floor has two more finished bedrooms and half bathroom. You can sleep 10 easy in this cabin and everyone should be comfortable! Other Features include Custom Oak kitchen cabinetry, On-Demand hot water system, Custom Oak staircases.

20. 2019-11-19
    listed $169,900 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    15 acres Hunting Land for sale with Brand New year-round Cabin! Access Carterville Pond (loaded with bass, pickerel, and panfish). Excellent Northern Zone Hunting and access to snowmobile trail right up the road. Brand new 2,000 square foot cabin or home. Walk-in finished basement with full bathroom, kitchen, wood stove, two storage rooms (one could be a finished bedroom). First-floor living room with large deck overlooking woodlands (second deck leading out of the man door). Two comfortable bedrooms with on the first floor along with a half bathroom. The second floor has two more finished bedrooms and half bathroom. You can sleep 10 easy in this cabin and everyone should be comfortable! Other Features include Custom Oak kitchen cabinetry, On-Demand hot water system, Custom Oak staircases.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,558
• − Property taxes: −$3,898
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − Depreciation: −$7,561
• Taxable loss: −$13,150
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,156
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,074/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602820
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,728
• Composite: 27.01/100
• National rank: #7063
• State rank: #573 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1137
• US rank: #23552

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,924

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.23%
• Current HPI: 316.4996
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+53.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $259,900 CNYIS
• 2020-09-11 Sold (MLS) $174,997 CNYIS
• 2020-07-07 Pending — CNYIS
• 2019-11-19 Listed $169,900 CNYIS