56546 Winding Creek Dr

Sterling Heights, MI 48042

$415,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,800 sqft · Built 2002 · SingleFamily · Pending · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,400/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax + insurance: −$520
• HOA: −$15
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-25/mo
• Annual: $-306/yr
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.26%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $116,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-306/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $411k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (18.1% below list).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $340k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#173 in MI, #4,545 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, health & safety D+, amenities F.
• New Haven Community Schools (suburban): math 25% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #305 of 540 in MI (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 334 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $225k; list at $415k implies a 84% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.8% in Sterling Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.