3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,847 sqft ·
Built 1990
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 106 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,880/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$603
Tax + insurance
−$311
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$395
Net cashflow
$571/mo
Annual
$6,858/yr
Cap rate
12.26%
Cash-on-cash
21.30%
DSCR
1.95
1% rule
1.63%
Cash to close
$32,200
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $115k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $571 ($7k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $115k).
It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $105k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $12k of equity ($795 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,230 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Hurla M Midkiff El (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,048 of 4,322 statewide, top 95%, 666 students, 81% FRL); Rafael A Cantu J H (math 16% / reading 26%, grade F, #1,387 of 1,662 statewide, top 85%, 594 students, 91% FRL); Veterans Memorial H S (math 19% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,073 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 1,932 students, 81% FRL).
Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 936 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 62d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
6 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $32k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 12.3% vs local median 3.2% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— The roof appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
Major: exterior siding
— The exterior siding and paint appear to be in poor condition, with peeling paint and visible wear.
Major: flooring
— The flooring in the interior appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
Major: interior walls/paint
— The interior walls and paint appear to be in poor condition, with peeling paint and visible wear.
Major: bathrooms
— The bathrooms appear to be in poor condition, with outdated fixtures and fixtures in need of replacement.
Major: HVAC/mechanicals
— The HVAC system appears to be in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AVWF365DB14P9J
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29