26455 Paradise Valley Rd #58

Aguanga, CA 92086

$32,950A

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Built 1978 · Manufactured · Active · 213 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,029/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax + insurance: −$55
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $585/mo
• Annual: $7,024/yr
• Cap rate: 27.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.13%
• DSCR: 4.39
• 1% rule: 3.12%
• Cash to close: $9,226

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $33k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($228 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 29/100 on livability (#1,472 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Warner Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,219 of 1,400 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 2.1% in Aguanga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.