26455 Paradise Valley Rd #58 · Aguanga, CA 92086

$32,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 624 sqft · Manufactured · 213 Days on market

Built 1978 Good condition $53/sqft · 39% below area Est $54k · 39% under ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Livability +1.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully updated 1978 Fleetwood Manufactured Home featuring 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom with modern fixtures throughout. The kitchen includes updated kitchen appliances. Located in the Quiet Oaks community with affordable space rent of $695 per month. A great opportunity to enjoy an updated home in a well-established, convenient community.

Key facts

• Quiet oaks community
• Built 1978
• Listed 212 days

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• QUIET OAKS COMMUNITY

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $32,950 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$54,137) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $33k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $585 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $33k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.6% vs local median 2.1% in Aguanga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 29/100 on livability (#1,472 in CA) — a limited-amenity area; tenant pool skews transient or value-seeking. Strengths: crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Warner Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #1,219 of 1,400 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($228 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $28,996 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.61%
• Cash-on-cash: 76.13%
• DSCR: 4.39
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,137
• List price: $32,950
• Delta: -39.14%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 86.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.99×
• Total profit: $55,241
• Equity at exit: $29,684

10-year hold

• IRR: 81.0%
• Equity multiple: 15.46×
• Total profit: $133,390
• Equity at exit: $64,015

Cash invested: $9,226 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92086

• Home prices YoY: 9.4%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,029 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$173
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $494/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $585

Break-even live

Break-even rent $288

Max offer price $32,950

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,238
• Closing costs: $988
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,950 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,950 Active 212 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,950 Active 211 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,950 Active 210 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,950 Active 209 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,950 Active 207 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,950 Active 206 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,950 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,950 Active 202 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,950 Active 201 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,950 Active 200 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $32,950 Active 197 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $32,950 Active 196 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $32,950 Active 195 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,950 Active 194 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $32,950 Active 193 DOM
17. 2026-05-07
    price $34,950 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Beautifully updated 1978 Fleetwood Manufactured Home featuring 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom with modern fixtures throughout. The kitchen includes updated kitchen appliances. Located in the Quiet Oaks community with affordable space rent of $695 per month. A great opportunity to enjoy an updated home in a well-established, convenient community.

18. 2026-03-05
    price $39,950 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Beautifully updated 1978 Fleetwood Manufactured Home featuring 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom with modern fixtures throughout. The kitchen includes updated kitchen appliances. Located in the Quiet Oaks community with affordable space rent of $695 per month. A great opportunity to enjoy an updated home in a well-established, convenient community.

19. 2025-11-18
    listed $44,950 Active 341-char remark

    Show marketing remark (341 chars)

    Beautifully updated 1978 Fleetwood Manufactured Home featuring 1 bedroom and 1 bathroom with modern fixtures throughout. The kitchen includes updated kitchen appliances. Located in the Quiet Oaks community with affordable space rent of $695 per month. A great opportunity to enjoy an updated home in a well-established, convenient community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 70% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥96°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,846
• − Property taxes: −$494
• − Insurance: −$165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$988
• − Management: −$988
• − Depreciation: −$959
• Taxable income: $6,911
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,659
• After-tax cash flow: $5,365/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This updated 1978 Fleetwood manufactured home in Quiet Oaks offers a modern living space with good curb appeal and minimal maintenance needs.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Modern unit improves comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace air conditioning unit — Modern unit improves comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warner Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600042
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,559
• Composite: 22.01/100
• National rank: #13538
• State rank: #1219 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Aguanga

• Score: 29/100
• State rank: #1472
• US rank: #27924

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,410

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 5% Native American 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Italian 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 11% Korean 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.73%
• Current HPI: 334.0631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-22.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $34,950 CRMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $39,950 CRMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listed $44,950 CRMLS