14035 Foursquare Rd

Smithfield, VA 23430

$264,000D

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · Built 1965 · SingleFamily · Active · 69 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax + insurance: −$218
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-23/mo
• Annual: $-271/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $73,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-271/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (24.3% below list).
• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $200k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in VA, #2,722 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.