14035 Foursquare Rd · Smithfield, VA 23430

$264,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 69 Days on market

Built 1965 0.31 ac lot ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your search could be over when you see this cute 1200 sq ft 3 bedroom 1 bath rancher. This house requires some work; it just needs someone ready to give it some TLC. It could be the perfect home for someone looking for a starter home or looking to downsize. The house is located on a shared private drive surrounded by farmland. Located minutes from downtown Smithfield's charming shops and restaurants. Enjoy country living in Smithfield, a well sought after community. Case#541-831678 IE (Insured Escrow) Subject to Appraisal. Property is Owned by the US Dept. of HUD. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to the property condition. HUD Homes are Sold "AS IS". Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyers closing costs upon buyer request.

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1965

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $264k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-23 ($-271/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $260k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (24.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (24.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 2.6% in Smithfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#82 in VA, #2,722 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 69 days — a 6% lower offer ($248k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,967 (24.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 69 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.37%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-44,322
• Equity at exit: $39,363

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-40,877
• Equity at exit: $22,826

Cash invested: $73,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23430

• Home prices YoY: -17.2%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,384
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,294/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $-23

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,028

Max offer price $260,015

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,000
• Closing costs: $7,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $264,000 Active 69 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $264,000 Active 68 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $264,000 Active 67 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $264,000 Active 66 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $264,000 Active 64 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $264,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $264,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $264,000 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $264,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $264,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $264,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $264,000 Active 51 DOM
13. 2026-04-09
    listed $264,000 Active 787-char remark

    Show marketing remark (787 chars)

    Your search could be over when you see this cute 1200 sq ft 3 bedroom 1 bath rancher. This house requires some work; it just needs someone ready to give it some TLC. It could be the perfect home for someone looking for a starter home or looking to downsize. The house is located on a shared private drive surrounded by farmland. Located minutes from downtown Smithfield's charming shops and restaurants. Enjoy country living in Smithfield, a well sought after community. Case#541-831678 IE (Insured Escrow) Subject to Appraisal. Property is Owned by the US Dept. of HUD. Seller makes no representations or warranties as to the property condition. HUD Homes are Sold "AS IS". Equal Housing Opportunity. Seller may contribute up to 3% for buyers closing costs upon buyer request.

14. 2026-03-12
    soldstatus $305,805

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,294 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,165 · $180/mo
• Expected delta: +$871/yr (+$73/mo · 67.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,996
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,788
• − Property taxes: −$1,294
• − Insurance: −$1,320
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$7,680
• Taxable loss: −$4,926
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,182
• After-tax cash flow: $911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Smithfield

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #82
• US rank: #2722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,057

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Black 23% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.15%
• Current HPI: 280.3343
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-13.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $264,000 REINMLS
• 2026-03-12 Sold (Public Records) $305,805 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,294 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.