6305 W State Highway 243

Myrtle Springs, TX 75103

$190,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,832 sqft · Built 1949 · SingleFamily · Active · 133 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,575/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$389
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-141/mo
• Annual: $-1,696/yr
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.19%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $53,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-141 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (13.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $157k (17.1% below list).
• It's been on market 133 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $157k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,054 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Canton ISD (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #151 of 826 in TX (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Canton El (571 students, 57% FRL); Canton J H (math 47% / reading 52%, grade C, #356 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 550 students, 47% FRL); Canton H S (math 67% / reading 72%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 653 students, 41% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 261 active listings in the ZIP; 54 units permitted in Van Zandt County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Van Zandt County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 61% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 1.1% in Myrtle Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 133 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.