The Ellison II Plan

Auburn, GA 30011

$276,990F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,912 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 243 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,203/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,789
• Tax + insurance: −$569
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-617/mo
• Annual: $-7,405/yr
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $95,524

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (20.5% below list).
• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $220k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#41 in GA, #4,693 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 766 students, 61% FRL); Westside Middle School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 736 students, 66% FRL); Apalachee High School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #203 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,894 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 552 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.