The Ellison II Plan · Auburn, GA 30011

$276,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily · 243 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

Key facts

• Generous kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• MODERN LOFT STYLE LAYOUT
• GENEROUS KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PERFECTLY PLACED LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $276,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $341,158.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $277k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-617 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (9.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (20.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (20.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#41 in GA, #4,693 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 766 students, 61% FRL); Westside Middle School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 736 students, 66% FRL); Apalachee High School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #203 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,894 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 552 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 88d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 72% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 243 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,330 (20.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 243 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.75%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $341,158
• List price: $276,990
• Delta: -18.81%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
41 Hydrangea Ln #73	0.82mi	3/2.5	1,945 (+2%)	2mo	$364,900	$188	60
1727 Wynfield Ln	0.97mi	3/2.0	2,014 (+5%)	3mo	$330,000	$164	51
1382 6th Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,050 (+7%)	14mo	$351,000	$171	48
203 Hill St	1.02mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,790 (-6%)	2mo	$335,000	$187	47
133 Springbrook Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-7%)	11mo	$325,000	$183	43
19 Hydrangea Unit 71 Way	0.23mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,281 (+19%)	14mo	$474,343	$208	42
51 Hydrangea Unit 74 Ln	0.83mi	4/3.5 (+1)	2,018 (+6%)	8mo	$414,900	$206	40
46 Spirea Way Lot 64	0.79mi	3/2.5	1,599 (-16%)	7mo	$344,900	$216	34
10 Spirea Way Lot 69	0.81mi	3/2.5	1,599 (-16%)	7mo	$344,900	$216	34
324 Heatherwood Dr	0.84mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,247 (+18%)	6mo	$355,000	$158	30
40 Spirea Unit 65 Way	0.79mi	3/2.5	1,590 (-17%)	12mo	$371,000	$233	30
7 Hydrangea Unit 70 Way	0.81mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,285 (+20%)	8mo	$450,000	$197	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.00×
• Total profit: $-95,718
• Equity at exit: $50,868

10-year hold

• IRR: -35.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.45×
• Total profit: $-138,566
• Equity at exit: $29,497

Cash invested: $95,524 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 22 active · 7 under contract
• Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $364,900 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 113 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -10.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30011

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 552
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,203 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,789
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$426 /mo · $5,117/yr
• Insurance: −$142
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$463
• Net cashflow: $-617

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,984

Max offer price $251,869

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-381	-5% $-499	+0% $-617	+5% $-735	+10% $-853
Rent	-10% $-791	-5% $-704	+0% $-617	+5% $-530	+10% $-443
Rate	-1.0pp $-445	-0.5pp $-530	base $-617	+0.5pp $-705	+1.0pp $-795

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,289
• Closing costs: $10,235
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
65 Basswood Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1591	$2,242	$1.41	10d	1	0.46mi
214 Cheyenne Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,900	$1.15	109d	1	0.66mi
214 Cheyenne Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,900	$1.15	110d	1	0.66mi
135 Springbrook Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1486	$1,500	$1.01	1d	1	0.71mi
135 Springbrook Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1486	$2,000	$1.35	31d	1	0.71mi
43 Pool Cir Auburn, GA	4.0	1.5	1571	$1,605	$1.02	102d	1	0.73mi
304 Heatherwood Dr Unit Labs Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,200	$1.00	37d	1	0.90mi
382 Cross Creek Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1456	$1,600	$1.10	10d	1	1.03mi
1730 Wynfield Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	2200	$800	$0.36	96d	1	1.04mi
212 N Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,075	$1.17	38d	1	1.11mi
127 N Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,100	$1.18	184d	1	1.14mi
130 Elk Grove Dr Auburn, GA	4.0	3.0	1896	$2,200	$1.16	3d	1	1.17mi
123 Auburn Run Ln Unit 1 Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1760	$2,090	$1.19	88d	1	1.17mi
123 Auburn Run Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	3.0	1760	$2,090	$1.19	56d	1	1.17mi
56 Auburn Hill Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,000	$1.13	56d	1	1.17mi
50 Auburn Hill Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1829	$2,000	$1.09	10d	1	1.17mi
245 Christy Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1457	$1,890	$1.30	184d	1	1.18mi
159 Auburn Run Ln Unit 1 Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1576	$1,990	$1.26	152d	1	1.18mi
159 Auburn Run Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	3.0	1576	$1,990	$1.26	144d	1	1.18mi
108 Auburn Gate Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,100	$1.18	184d	1	1.19mi
108 Auburn Gate Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,100	$1.18	1d	1	1.19mi
116 Auburn Gate Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1829	$2,100	$1.15	159d	1	1.19mi
25 S Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,050	$1.19	184d	1	1.26mi
23 N Auburn Landing Pl Unit 1 Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,890	$1.26	184d	1	1.27mi
3015 Gorman Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1422	$2,100	$1.48	10d	1	1.28mi
77 Auburn Woods Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,995	$1.10	184d	1	1.29mi
91 Auburn Woods Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1788	$2,200	$1.23	184d	1	1.30mi
73 S Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1786	$1,975	$1.11	10d	1	1.31mi
73 S Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1786	$1,975	$1.11	45d	1	1.31mi
1091 Lucienne Blvd Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1422	$2,100	$1.48	9d	1	1.31mi
122 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1750	$3,600	$2.06	10d	1	1.32mi
110 S Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,000	$1.13	184d	1	1.34mi
2095 Emerson Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1421	$1,900	$1.34	95d	1	1.34mi
2099 Emerson Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,200	$1.55	158d	1	1.35mi
2099 Emerson Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	3.0	1421	$1,800	$1.27	65d	1	1.35mi
2099 Emerson Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1421	$1,800	$1.27	78d	1	1.35mi
1156 Augustine Dr Auburn, GA	4.0	2.0	1754	$2,136	$1.22	57d	1	1.35mi
153 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,100	$1.20	95d	1	1.35mi
485 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1818	$2,150	$1.18	112d	1	1.36mi
300 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1818	$2,000	$1.10	2d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $276,990 Active 243 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $276,990 Active 242 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $276,990 Active 241 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $276,990 Active 240 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $276,990 Active 239 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $276,990 Active 237 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $276,990 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-10-31
   days on market $276,990 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-10-30
   days on market $276,990 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-10-29
    days on market $276,990 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-10-28
    days on market $276,990 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-10-27
    days on market $276,990 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-10-26
    days on market $276,990 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $276,990 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-10-24
    days on market $276,990 Active 228 DOM
16. 2026-10-23
    days on market $276,990 Active 227 DOM
17. 2026-10-22
    days on market $276,990 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-10-21
    days on market $276,990 Active 225 DOM
19. 2026-10-20
    days on market $276,990 Active 224 DOM
20. 2026-10-19
    days on market $276,990 Active 223 DOM
21. 2026-10-18
    days on market $276,990 Active 222 DOM
22. 2026-10-17
    days on market $276,990 Active 221 DOM
23. 2026-10-16
    days on market $276,990 Active 220 DOM
24. 2026-10-15
    days on market $276,990 Active 219 DOM
25. 2026-10-14
    days on market $276,990 Active 218 DOM
26. 2026-10-13
    days on market $276,990 Active 217 DOM
27. 2026-10-12
    days on market $276,990 Active 216 DOM
28. 2026-10-11
    days on market $276,990 Active 215 DOM
29. 2026-10-10
    days on market $276,990 Active 214 DOM
30. 2026-10-09
    days on market $276,990 Active 213 DOM
31. 2026-10-08
    days on market $276,990 Active 212 DOM
32. 2026-10-07
    pricedays on market $276,990 Active 211 DOM
33. 2026-10-06
    days on market $274,990 Active 210 DOM
34. 2026-10-05
    days on market $274,990 Active 209 DOM
35. 2026-10-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 208 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $274,990 Active 207 DOM
37. 2026-10-02
    days on market $274,990 Active 206 DOM
38. 2026-10-01
    days on market $274,990 Active 205 DOM
39. 2026-09-30
    days on market $274,990 Active 204 DOM
40. 2026-09-29
    days on market $274,990 Active 203 DOM
41. 2026-09-28
    days on market $274,990 Active 202 DOM
42. 2026-09-27
    days on market $274,990 Active 201 DOM
43. 2026-09-26
    days on market $274,990 Active 200 DOM
44. 2026-09-25
    days on market $274,990 Active 199 DOM
45. 2026-09-24
    days on market $274,990 Active 198 DOM
46. 2026-09-23
    days on market $274,990 Active 197 DOM
47. 2026-09-22
    days on market $274,990 Active 196 DOM
48. 2026-09-21
    days on market $274,990 Active 195 DOM
49. 2026-09-20
    days on market $274,990 Active 194 DOM
50. 2026-09-19
    days on market $274,990 Active 193 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,440
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,110
• − Property taxes: −$5,117
• − Insurance: −$1,706
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,115
• − Management: −$2,115
• − Depreciation: −$9,925
• Taxable loss: −$13,649
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,276
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,560–$28,680 screening

The Ellison II Plan is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting and minor updates would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Auburn Elementary School F GA #633/1,228 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Westside Middle School F GA #319/470 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Apalachee High School F GA #203/424 Nat'l #13,437/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barrow County
• NCES district ID: 1300290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,082
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6921
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #4693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburn, GA
• County: Barrow County · 86,670 people
• City population: 21,624
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 21,624
• Household income: $86,402
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Barrow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,670 people
• By 2030: 92,039 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 101,992 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 110,075 · +27.0%
• By 2075: 124,017 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 127,579 · +47.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Barrow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.5% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.30%
• Current HPI: 212.2609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $271,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $291,900 Zillow