The Ellison II Plan · Auburn, GA 30011

$271,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,912 sqft · SingleFamily · 151 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Ellison II features a modern, open layout, perfect for comfortable living and entertaining. A generous kitchen with plenty of counter space for meal preparation and an optional island for those who love to entertain opens up to the spacious family room. The second-floor owner's suite boasts a huge bath and walk-in closet. Two well-appointed additional bedrooms and a perfectly placed laundry room finish off the second floor.

Key facts

• Generous kitchen
• Walk-in closet
• Owner's suite

Tags

• MODERN LOFT STYLE LAYOUT
• GENEROUS KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• OWNER'S SUITE
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PERFECTLY PLACED LAUNDRY ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $271,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $335,426.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $272k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-567 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $253k (6.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#41 in GA, #4,693 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Auburn Elementary School (math 32% / reading 27%, grade F, #633 of 1,228 statewide, top 54%, 766 students, 61% FRL); Westside Middle School (math 20% / reading 27%, grade F, #319 of 470 statewide, top 68%, 736 students, 66% FRL); Apalachee High School (math 13% / reading 35%, grade F, #203 of 424 statewide, top 48%, 1,894 students, 49% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 425 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 151 days — a 12% lower offer ($239k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,600 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 151 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.25%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $335,426
• List price: $271,900
• Delta: -18.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
448 10th St	0.23mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,010 (+5%)	22mo	$463,540	$231	55
1382 6th Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	2,050 (+7%)	11mo	$351,000	$171	50
24 Autry Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,886 (-1%)	15mo	$305,000	$162	48
133 Springbrook Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,780 (-7%)	8mo	$325,000	$183	45
248 Cheyenne Way	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,656 (-13%)	21mo	$324,900	$196	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.47% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -29.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-91,635
• Equity at exit: $50,013

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.39×
• Total profit: $-130,965
• Equity at exit: $29,002

Cash invested: $93,919 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 18 active · 4 under contract
• Months of supply: 18.0 mo (6%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $359,900 ($181/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -3.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 30011

• Home prices YoY: -30.5%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 425
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,759
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$419 /mo · $5,031/yr
• Insurance: −$140
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,934

Max offer price $253,320

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-336	-5% $-452	+0% $-567	+5% $-683	+10% $-799
Rent	-10% $-742	-5% $-655	+0% $-567	+5% $-480	+10% $-392
Rate	-1.0pp $-398	-0.5pp $-482	base $-567	+0.5pp $-654	+1.0pp $-743

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $83,857
• Closing costs: $10,063
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
65 Basswood Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5–3.0	1591	$2,228	$1.40	7d	1	0.46mi
214 Cheyenne Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,900	$1.15	19d	1	0.66mi
214 Cheyenne Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1649	$1,900	$1.15	17d	1	0.66mi
43 Pool Cir Auburn, GA	4.0	1.5	1571	$1,605	$1.02	10d	1	0.73mi
1730 Wynfield Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	2200	$800	$0.36	4d	1	1.04mi
127 N Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,100	$1.18	93d	1	1.14mi
56 Auburn Hill Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,350	$1.32	4d	1	1.17mi
245 Christy Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1457	$1,890	$1.30	93d	1	1.18mi
159 Auburn Run Ln Unit 1 Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1576	$1,990	$1.26	60d	1	1.18mi
159 Auburn Run Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	3.0	1576	$1,990	$1.26	53d	1	1.18mi
108 Auburn Gate Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,100	$1.18	93d	1	1.19mi
116 Auburn Gate Ln Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1829	$2,100	$1.15	68d	1	1.19mi
25 S Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1718	$2,050	$1.19	93d	1	1.26mi
23 N Auburn Landing Pl Unit 1 Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,890	$1.26	93d	1	1.27mi
3015 Gorman Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1422	$2,100	$1.48	34d	1	1.28mi
77 Auburn Woods Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.0	1817	$1,995	$1.10	93d	1	1.29mi
91 Auburn Woods Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1788	$2,200	$1.23	93d	1	1.30mi
122 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1750	$5,000	$2.86	73d	1	1.32mi
110 S Auburn Landing Pl Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$2,000	$1.13	93d	1	1.34mi
2095 Emerson Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1421	$1,900	$1.34	3d	1	1.34mi
2099 Emerson Dr Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1421	$2,200	$1.55	67d	1	1.35mi
153 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,100	$1.20	3d	1	1.35mi
485 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1818	$2,150	$1.18	20d	1	1.36mi
300 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1818	$2,250	$1.24	54d	1	1.37mi
161 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1745	$2,200	$1.26	4d	1	1.37mi
221 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1774	$1,950	$1.10	93d	1	1.39mi
263 Auburn Valley Way Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1818	$2,200	$1.21	21d	1	1.39mi
275 Auburn Valley Way Unit 1 Auburn, GA	3.0	2.5	1818	$2,100	$1.16	16d	1	1.39mi
382 Scenic Ln Auburn, GA	4.0	3.0	2247	$2,106	$0.94	0d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $271,900 Active 151 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $271,900 Active 149 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $271,900 Active 148 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $271,900 Active 147 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $271,900 Active 146 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $271,900 Active 143 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $271,900 Active 141 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $271,900 Active 140 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $271,900 Active 138 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $271,900 Active 136 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $271,900 Active 135 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $271,900 Active 134 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $271,900 Active 133 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $271,900 Active 132 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $271,900 Active 130 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $271,900 Active 129 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $271,900 Active 128 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $271,900 Active 127 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $271,900 Active 126 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $271,900 Active 125 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $271,900 Active 124 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $271,900 Active 123 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $271,900 Active 122 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $271,900 Active 121 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $271,900 Active 119 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $271,900 Active 118 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $271,900 Active 117 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $271,900 Active 116 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $271,900 Active 115 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $271,900 Active 114 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $271,900 Active 113 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $271,900 Active 112 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $271,900 Active 111 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $271,900 Active 110 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $271,900 Active 109 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    days on market $271,900 Active 108 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $271,900 Active 106 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $271,900 Active 104 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $271,900 Active 103 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $271,900 Active 100 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $271,900 Active 99 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $271,900 Active 98 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $271,900 Active 97 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $271,900 Active 95 DOM
45. 2026-06-09
    days on market $271,900 Active 91 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $271,900 Active 90 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $271,900 Active 89 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $271,900 Active 86 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $271,900 Active 85 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $271,900 Active 84 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 20% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,592
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,789
• − Property taxes: −$5,031
• − Insurance: −$1,677
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − Depreciation: −$9,758
• Taxable loss: −$12,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,100
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,560–$28,680 screening

The Ellison II Plan is in excellent condition with minimal repairs needed. Painting and minor updates would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in kitchen and bathrooms — Improves functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both New bathroom fixtures — Enhances functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Auburn Elementary School F GA #633/1,228 Nat'l #26,716/41,679 Middle Westside Middle School F GA #319/470 Nat'l #10,902/14,009 High Apalachee High School F GA #203/424 Nat'l #13,437/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barrow County
• NCES district ID: 1300290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,082
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6921
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Auburn

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #4693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Auburn, GA
• County: Barrow County · 86,670 people
• City population: 21,624
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 21,624
• Household income: $86,402
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Barrow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,670 people
• By 2030: 92,039 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 101,992 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 110,075 · +27.0%
• By 2075: 124,017 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 127,579 · +47.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 5% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 10% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Vietnamese 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Barrow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.5% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.30%
• Current HPI: 212.2609
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.47%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $271,900 Zillow
• 2026-03-11 Listed $291,900 Zillow