19 Urban St

New Canaan, CT 06840

$1,950,000C-

4 bd · 9.0 ba · 2,534 sqft · Built 1941 · MultiFamily · Active · 17 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $18,088/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$10,226
• Tax + insurance: −$1,602
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,798
• Net cashflow: $2,461/mo
• Annual: $29,534/yr
• Cap rate: 7.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.41%
• DSCR: 1.24
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $546,000

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/3-bath units multifamily listed at $1.95M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($30k/yr) — positive. Per door: $820/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.81M (7.2% below list).
• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($1.92M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.81M (7.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $13k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $58k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Canaan School District (suburban): math 81% / reading 86% proficiency, ranked #1 of 153 in CT (top 1%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 6% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East School (math 84% / reading 84%, grade A+, #7 of 553 statewide, top 1%, 550 students, 0% FRL); New Canaan High School (math 77% / reading 92%, grade A, #1 of 194 statewide, top 1%, 1,294 students, 0% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1941 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.28M; list at $1.95M implies a 52% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.5% in New Canaan — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $18,088/mo this rent would consume 87% of the median local household income ($250k/yr) (locally 261% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Built in 1941 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.