2012 Coachman Ct

Wilson's Mills, NC 27520

$235,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,310 sqft · Built 2005 · Manufactured · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,726/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-119/mo
• Annual: $-1,428/yr
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• 1% rule: 0.73%
• Cash to close: $65,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (26.5% below list).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $173k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Polenta Elementary (math 49% / reading 46%, grade D, #490 of 1,410 statewide, top 35%, 1,014 students, 46% FRL); Swift Creek Middle (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 750 students, 46% FRL); Cleveland High (math 65% / reading 57%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,879 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 765 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $235k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Wilson's Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.