2012 Coachman Ct · Wilson's Mills, NC 27520

$235,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,310 sqft · Manufactured public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2005 0.58 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Time is running out! This short sale is a tremendous opportunity! Far under market value! Top quality construction - realize moment you enter! Built-in office area! Includes surround sound TV, speakers, in huge Family/Bonus! All appliances stay. Outstanding condition! LG storage shed and abundance of closets! Utility/Mud Room. Must see! See movie tour at agent site to learn more!

Key facts

• Large kitchen
• Single-level living
• Center island

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL LIVING
• LARGE KITCHEN
• CENTER ISLAND
• SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• OVERSIZED LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking for 6 vehicles; Carport
• Utilities: Community water; Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; One level
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heat; Heat pump; Wood heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room on the main level (inside)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (26.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $173k (26.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Wilson's Mills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Johnston County Public Schools (rural): math 39% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #105 of 178 in NC (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Swift Creek Middle (math 38% / reading 43%, grade F, #215 of 475 statewide, top 46%, 750 students, 46% FRL); Cleveland High (math 65% / reading 57%, grade C+, #202 of 535 statewide, top 39%, 1,879 students, 35% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 762 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 2,783 units permitted in Johnston County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnston County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($231k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $94k; list at $235k implies a 151% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 73% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,630 (26.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.17%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.79% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-49,475
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-67,830
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27520

• Home prices YoY: -28.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 762
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,726 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,877

Max offer price $213,982

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $14	-5% $-52	+0% $-119	+5% $-185	+10% $-252
Rent	-10% $-255	-5% $-187	+0% $-119	+5% $-51	+10% $17
Rate	-1.0pp $-1	-0.5pp $-59	base $-119	+0.5pp $-180	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $235,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 15 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-05-08
    status Pending
12. 2026-05-01
    listed $235,000 Active
13. 2011-03-17
    soldstatus $93,500 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Time is running out! This short sale is a tremendous opportunity! Far under market value! Top quality construction - realize moment you enter! Built-in office area! Includes surround sound TV, speakers, in huge Family/Bonus! All appliances stay. Outstanding condition! LG storage shed and abundance of closets! Utility/Mud Room. Must see! See movie tour at agent site to learn more!

14. 2011-03-17
    soldstatus $94,000

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Time is running out! This short sale is a tremendous opportunity! Far under market value! Top quality construction - realize moment you enter! Built-in office area! Includes surround sound TV, speakers, in huge Family/Bonus! All appliances stay. Outstanding condition! LG storage shed and abundance of closets! Utility/Mud Room. Must see! See movie tour at agent site to learn more!

15. 2011-02-21
    historical 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Time is running out! This short sale is a tremendous opportunity! Far under market value! Top quality construction - realize moment you enter! Built-in office area! Includes surround sound TV, speakers, in huge Family/Bonus! All appliances stay. Outstanding condition! LG storage shed and abundance of closets! Utility/Mud Room. Must see! See movie tour at agent site to learn more!

16. 2010-06-23
    listed $99,900 382-char remark

    Show marketing remark (382 chars)

    Time is running out! This short sale is a tremendous opportunity! Far under market value! Top quality construction - realize moment you enter! Built-in office area! Includes surround sound TV, speakers, in huge Family/Bonus! All appliances stay. Outstanding condition! LG storage shed and abundance of closets! Utility/Mud Room. Must see! See movie tour at agent site to learn more!

17. 2010-05-01
    historical
18. 2009-01-08
    listed $114,900
19. 2009-01-01
    historical
20. 2008-09-07
    listed $148,500
21. 2008-09-02
    historical
22. 2008-06-12
    listed $148,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,830 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,927 · $161/mo
• Expected delta: +$97/yr (+$8/mo · 5.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 73% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,716
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,657
• − Management: −$1,657
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable loss: −$5,604
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,345
• After-tax cash flow: $-83/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Johnston County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702370
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $50,912
• Composite: 34.99/100
• National rank: #5052
• State rank: #105 of 178 in NC

Livability — Wilson's Mills

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Johnston County · 175,441 people
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• Population (ZIP): 48,014
• Household income: $86,322
• Rent vs Own: 25.7% rent · 74.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 760.0

Population outlook (Johnston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 222,440 people
• By 2030: 240,227 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 274,616 · +23.5%
• By 2050: 304,915 · +37.1%
• By 2075: 369,507 · +66.1%
• By 2100: 406,280 · +82.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.5) · D 38.7% · R 60.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.2pp toward D · 2008: -23.7pp · 2024: -21.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.5 2020: R+24.3 2016: R+30.7 2012: R+27.8 2008: R+23.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.88%
• Current HPI: 238.2079
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Metro: Raleigh-Cary, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+57.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $235,000 TMLS
• 2011-03-17 Sold (Public Records) $94,000 Public Records
• 2011-03-17 Sold (MLS) $93,500 TMLS
• 2011-02-21 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2010-06-23 Listed $99,900 TMLS
• 2010-05-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2009-01-08 Listed $114,900 TMLS
• 2009-01-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2008-09-07 Listed $148,500 TMLS
• 2008-09-02 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2008-06-12 Listed $148,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,830 · +62.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.