14216 Aldengate Rd

Midlothian, VA 23114

$325,000D+

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1978 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,590/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax + insurance: −$373
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-32/mo
• Annual: $-379/yr
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.80%
• Cash to close: $91,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-379/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (20.3% below list).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $259k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J.B. Watkins Elementary (math 80% / reading 84%, grade A+, #106 of 1,108 statewide, top 11%, 814 students, 16% FRL); Midlothian Middle (math 69% / reading 76%, grade A, #61 of 342 statewide, top 18%, 1,368 students, 14% FRL); Midlothian High (math 68% / reading 95%, grade A, #50 of 319 statewide, top 16%, 2,041 students, 14% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 79% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chesterfield County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $325k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.