14216 Aldengate Rd · Midlothian, VA 23114

$325,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1978 0.74 ac lot Est $404k · 20% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great investment opportunity in the growing Midlothian area. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offers 1,728 square feet of living space situated on a large 0.74-acre lot with no HOA. Built in 1978, the property presents strong potential for renovation, rental income, resale, or long-term hold. Spacious lot provides room for outdoor improvements, expansion possibilities, or value-add opportunities. Located in the established Otterdale area with convenient access to shopping, dining, schools, and major commuter routes. Solid opportunity for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to add equity through updates and improvements. Roof 2016, HVAC 2021, Water Tank 2025, Hardwood floors under carpet in

Key facts

• 0.74 acre lot
• Built 1978
• Listed 2 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-379/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $319k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Midlothian — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: J.B. Watkins Elementary (math 80% / reading 84%, grade A+, #106 of 1,108 statewide, top 11%, 814 students, 16% FRL); Midlothian Middle (math 69% / reading 76%, grade A, #61 of 342 statewide, top 18%, 1,368 students, 14% FRL); Midlothian High (math 68% / reading 95%, grade A, #50 of 319 statewide, top 16%, 2,041 students, 14% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 79% at this address vs 58% district-wide (+21 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chesterfield County Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $325k implies a 181% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 25% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $258,958 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $404,352
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14503 Charlemagne Ct	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,728 (0%)	2mo	$458,000	$265	77
1125 Ashton Village Ln	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,782 (+3%)	18mo	$415,000	$233	49
14051 S Carriage Ln	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,820 (+5%)	23mo	$425,000	$234	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-41,057
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $23,681
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23114

• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,590 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$238 /mo · $2,852/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$544
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,630

Max offer price $319,415

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $152	-5% $60	+0% $-32	+5% $-124	+10% $-216
Rent	-10% $-236	-5% $-134	+0% $-32	+5% $71	+10% $173
Rate	-1.0pp $132	-0.5pp $51	base $-32	+0.5pp $-116	+1.0pp $-202

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1104 Winterlake Ct Midlothian, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	986	$2,256	$2.29	3d	13	0.52mi
14201 Martinet Xing Midlothian, VA	3.0	2.5	2160	$2,500	$1.16	25d	1	0.53mi
1420 Ewing Park Loop #202 Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.0	1216	$2,095	$1.72	5d	1	0.55mi
1532 Ewing Park Loop Unit 1 Midlothian, VA	3.0	3.0	1641	$2,900	$1.77	45d	1	0.56mi
101 Avenda Ln Midlothian, VA	4.0	2.5	1792	$2,625	$1.46	16d	1	0.96mi
121 This Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.5	1792	$2,550	$1.42	45d	1	0.98mi
401 Lancaster Gate Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,364	$2.25	3d	25	0.99mi
500 Bristol Village Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1145	$2,273	$1.98	4d	6	1.01mi
13836 Randolph Pond Ln Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.5	2122	$2,700	$1.27	18d	1	1.02mi
13801 Randolph Pond Ln Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.5	2059	$2,995	$1.45	3d	1	1.04mi
437 American Elm Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1294	$2,870	$2.22	3d	16	1.10mi
637 Abbey Village Cir Midlothian, VA	4.0	3.5	1963	$2,680	$1.37	5d	1	1.15mi
13300 Enclave Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,966	$1.88	3d	14	1.30mi
701 Watkins View Dr Midlothian, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1023	$2,539	$2.48	3d	13	1.32mi
13321 Garland Ln Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.0	1623	$2,300	$1.42	45d	1	1.34mi
13327 Coalfield Station Ln Midlothian, VA	2.0	2.5	1671	$2,450	$1.47	45d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   status $325,000 Pending 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $325,000 Active 2 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   statusdays on market $325,000 Active 1 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $325,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-18
    historical $325,000
17. 2001-01-16
    soldstatus $115,500
18. 1987-11-13
    soldstatus $82,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,852 · $238/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,852 · $238/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 25% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,852
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,486
• − Management: −$2,486
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$6,033
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,448
• After-tax cash flow: $1,069/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Midlothian

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midlothian, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• City population: 106,124
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 21,631
• Household income: $112,738
• Rent vs Own: 24.1% rent · 75.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 408.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 12% Asian 7% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -139.53%
• Current HPI: 254.5393
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.31%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+291.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $325,000 CVRMLS
• 2001-01-16 Sold (Public Records) $115,500 Public Records
• 1987-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $82,950 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,852 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.