31 Moses Dr

Martinsburg, WV 25405

$315,000D

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,236 sqft · Built 2022 · Townhouse · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax + insurance: −$301
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-192/mo
• Annual: $-2,307/yr
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.62%
• DSCR: 0.88
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $88,200

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $315k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-192 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (10.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($310k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $225k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $12k appreciation (3.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#29 in WV, #4,057 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, employment D-.
• Berkeley County Schools (other): math 21% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #24 of 55 in WV (top 44%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 121 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,460 units permitted in Berkeley County in 2024 (16 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Berkeley County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 13900% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Martinsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.