4561 Newbury Dr

Vermilion, OH 44089

$343,700B-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · Built 1967 · SingleFamily · Pending · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $4,273/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,802
• Tax + insurance: −$457
• HOA: −$25
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $1,092/mo
• Annual: $13,101/yr
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.61%
• DSCR: 1.61
• 1% rule: 1.24%
• Cash to close: $96,236

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $344k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $344k).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $339k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 7 sale attempts since 36y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $344k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $96k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 6.2% in Vermilion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $4,273/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
• Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.