4561 Newbury Dr · Vermilion, OH 44089

$343,700

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 1967 0.32 ac lot $246/sqft · 58% above area $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.4/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this immaculate, move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Crystal Shores Subdivision. Enjoy exclusive access to a private beach on Lake Erie!Features include updated landscaping, an elegant front entrance, and a charming porch. The spacious living room seamlessly connects to the dining area, both with refinished hardwood floors. Sliding glass doors open to a deck overlooking a serene backyard, perfect for relaxation or entertaining guests. The kitchen features custom wood cabinetry with slide-out drawers, a nice sized pantry, Mannington flooring, and updated appliances. All bedrooms have been freshly painted and feature refinished hardwood floors and Hunter ceiling fans. The main bathroom features a new cabinet with a double-bowl sink, updated faucets, medicine cabinets and more. The oversized two-car attached garage includes polycoat flooring with a lifetime transferable warranty, a LiftMaster opener, and updated lighting. The finished lower level provides a large recreation area with a wood-burning fireplace, new carpet, fresh paint, and a sliding entrance door. The updated full bath features Mannington flooring, a new shower surround and more. Ample storage is available throughout the home. Additional updates: newer furnace, tankless water heater, new Carrier A/C with transferable warranty, utility sink, faucet, sidewalk, outdoor Hinkley post lighting (dusk-to-dawn photo cell), three storm doors, two frost-free spigots, doorbells, and chimney caps. Conveniently located near Historic Downtown Vermilion, offering dining, entertainment, lakefront activities, and shopping. Schedule your private showing today!​

Key facts

• Charming porch
• Private beach
• Updated landscaping

Tags

• PRIVATE BEACH
• UPDATED LANDSCAPING
• ELEGANT FRONT ENTRANCE
• CHARMING PORCH
• REFINISHED HARDWOOD FLOORS
• DECK OVERLOOKING BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Crystal Shores homeowners association; Annual HOA fee of $300 covering common area maintenance and recreation facilities; Community amenities include lake access and tennis courts

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with approximately 2.5 spaces; Driveway; Garage faces side; Workshop area in garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story home; Block foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built per public records
• Exterior features: Deck; Front porch; Partial fencing; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first floor
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Additional bedrooms on first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced-air gas heating
• Interior features: Basement with sump pump; Living room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Basement laundry room (approx. 10 x 6.6)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $344k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $344k).
• Recommended offer: $339k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 5.0% in Vermilion — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#96 in OH, #1,481 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Vermilion Local (suburban): math 56% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #316 of 656 in OH (top 48%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 145 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,098 units permitted in Lorain County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,273/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($72k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $96k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 36y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $210k; list at $344k implies a 64% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $338,544 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.24% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.61%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $217,891
• List price: $343,700
• Delta: 57.74%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4276 Ford Ln	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,383 (-1%)	10mo	$290,000	$210	59
816 Vermilion Rd	0.54mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,472 (+5%)	16mo	$199,900	$136	46
867 Vermilion Rd	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,522 (+9%)	12mo	$262,000	$172	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.14×
• Total profit: $13,847
• Equity at exit: $51,247

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $101,627
• Equity at exit: $29,717

Cash invested: $96,236 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44089

• Active inventory: 145
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,802
• Tax from tax record: −$314 /mo · $3,763/yr
• Insurance: −$143
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $1,092

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,891

Max offer price $343,700

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,286	-5% $1,189	+0% $1,092	+5% $994	+10% $897
Rent	-10% $754	-5% $923	+0% $1,092	+5% $1,261	+10% $1,429
Rate	-1.0pp $1,265	-0.5pp $1,179	base $1,092	+0.5pp $1,003	+1.0pp $912

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $85,925
• Closing costs: $10,311
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1041 Dogwood Ln Vermilion, OH	2.0	2.0	1457	$2,274	$1.56	2d	12	0.83mi
5012 Hollyview Dr Unit 1496126P Vermilion, OH	4.0	1.5	1679	$8,362	$4.98	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-09
   listed $343,700 Active 1673-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1668 chars)

   Welcome to this immaculate, move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Crystal Shores Subdivision. Enjoy exclusive access to a private beach on Lake Erie!Features include updated landscaping, an elegant front entrance, and a charming porch. The spacious living room seamlessly connects to the dining area, both with refinished hardwood floors. Sliding glass doors open to a deck overlooking a serene backyard, perfect for relaxation or entertaining guests. The kitchen features custom wood cabinetry with slide-out drawers, a nice sized pantry, Mannington flooring, and updated appliances. All bedrooms have been freshly painted and feature refinished hardwood floors and Hunter ceiling fans. The main bathroom features a new cabinet with a double-bowl sink, updated faucets, medicine cabinets and more. The oversized two-car attached garage includes polycoat flooring with a lifetime transferable warranty, a LiftMaster opener, and updated lighting. The finished lower level provides a large recreation area with a wood-burning fireplace, new carpet, fresh paint, and a sliding entrance door. The updated full bath features Mannington flooring, a new shower surround and more. Ample storage is available throughout the home. Additional updates: newer furnace, tankless water heater, new Carrier A/C with transferable warranty, utility sink, faucet, sidewalk, outdoor Hinkley post lighting (dusk-to-dawn photo cell), three storm doors, two frost-free spigots, doorbells, and chimney caps. Conveniently located near Historic Downtown Vermilion, offering dining, entertainment, lakefront activities, and shopping. Schedule your private showing today!​

2. 2026-05-09
   listed $343,700 Active 1668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1668 chars)

   Welcome to this immaculate, move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Crystal Shores Subdivision. Enjoy exclusive access to a private beach on Lake Erie!Features include updated landscaping, an elegant front entrance, and a charming porch. The spacious living room seamlessly connects to the dining area, both with refinished hardwood floors. Sliding glass doors open to a deck overlooking a serene backyard, perfect for relaxation or entertaining guests. The kitchen features custom wood cabinetry with slide-out drawers, a nice sized pantry, Mannington flooring, and updated appliances. All bedrooms have been freshly painted and feature refinished hardwood floors and Hunter ceiling fans. The main bathroom features a new cabinet with a double-bowl sink, updated faucets, medicine cabinets and more. The oversized two-car attached garage includes polycoat flooring with a lifetime transferable warranty, a LiftMaster opener, and updated lighting. The finished lower level provides a large recreation area with a wood-burning fireplace, new carpet, fresh paint, and a sliding entrance door. The updated full bath features Mannington flooring, a new shower surround and more. Ample storage is available throughout the home. Additional updates: newer furnace, tankless water heater, new Carrier A/C with transferable warranty, utility sink, faucet, sidewalk, outdoor Hinkley post lighting (dusk-to-dawn photo cell), three storm doors, two frost-free spigots, doorbells, and chimney caps. Conveniently located near Historic Downtown Vermilion, offering dining, entertainment, lakefront activities, and shopping. Schedule your private showing today!​

3. 2026-05-03
   historical $343,700 1668-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1668 chars)

   Welcome to this immaculate, move-in-ready 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in the desirable Crystal Shores Subdivision. Enjoy exclusive access to a private beach on Lake Erie!Features include updated landscaping, an elegant front entrance, and a charming porch. The spacious living room seamlessly connects to the dining area, both with refinished hardwood floors. Sliding glass doors open to a deck overlooking a serene backyard, perfect for relaxation or entertaining guests. The kitchen features custom wood cabinetry with slide-out drawers, a nice sized pantry, Mannington flooring, and updated appliances. All bedrooms have been freshly painted and feature refinished hardwood floors and Hunter ceiling fans. The main bathroom features a new cabinet with a double-bowl sink, updated faucets, medicine cabinets and more. The oversized two-car attached garage includes polycoat flooring with a lifetime transferable warranty, a LiftMaster opener, and updated lighting. The finished lower level provides a large recreation area with a wood-burning fireplace, new carpet, fresh paint, and a sliding entrance door. The updated full bath features Mannington flooring, a new shower surround and more. Ample storage is available throughout the home. Additional updates: newer furnace, tankless water heater, new Carrier A/C with transferable warranty, utility sink, faucet, sidewalk, outdoor Hinkley post lighting (dusk-to-dawn photo cell), three storm doors, two frost-free spigots, doorbells, and chimney caps. Conveniently located near Historic Downtown Vermilion, offering dining, entertainment, lakefront activities, and shopping. Schedule your private showing today!​

4. 2024-10-10
   soldstatus $210,000
5. 2024-10-08
   soldstatus $210,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

   Don't miss the opportunity for first-floor living with easy access to the Crystal Shores private beach on Lake Erie! The spacious 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home in this lovely lakeside neighborhood is just awaiting your personal touches. The front entrance is elegantly set off by a large front porch, brick exterior and side entry garage. Once inside the generously sized living room flows into the dining area and features a Pella sliding glass door out to the large wood-look deck, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is outfitted with wood cabinetry and pantry providing quick access for kitchen gadgets. Enjoy the convenience of an attached, oversized 2-car garage with additional pull down storage. Privately tucked away on the opposite side of the home are 3 bedrooms and full bath. Downstairs the possibilities are endless to subdivide the huge full basement into a rec space, laundry, workshop, etc. , and offers the home's second full bathroom. While downstairs, don't miss the UPDATED ELECTRICAL, NEWER FURNACE, and TANKLESS HOTWATER SYSTEM! Please excuse the personal items, as the contents are being organized for an upcoming sale. Open House Saturday 8/10 from 12-2pm.

6. 2024-08-14
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

   Don't miss the opportunity for first-floor living with easy access to the Crystal Shores private beach on Lake Erie! The spacious 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home in this lovely lakeside neighborhood is just awaiting your personal touches. The front entrance is elegantly set off by a large front porch, brick exterior and side entry garage. Once inside the generously sized living room flows into the dining area and features a Pella sliding glass door out to the large wood-look deck, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is outfitted with wood cabinetry and pantry providing quick access for kitchen gadgets. Enjoy the convenience of an attached, oversized 2-car garage with additional pull down storage. Privately tucked away on the opposite side of the home are 3 bedrooms and full bath. Downstairs the possibilities are endless to subdivide the huge full basement into a rec space, laundry, workshop, etc. , and offers the home's second full bathroom. While downstairs, don't miss the UPDATED ELECTRICAL, NEWER FURNACE, and TANKLESS HOTWATER SYSTEM! Please excuse the personal items, as the contents are being organized for an upcoming sale. Open House Saturday 8/10 from 12-2pm.

7. 2024-08-08
   listed $219,900 Active

   Show marketing remark (1185 chars)

   Don't miss the opportunity for first-floor living with easy access to the Crystal Shores private beach on Lake Erie! The spacious 3 bedroom, 2 full bath home in this lovely lakeside neighborhood is just awaiting your personal touches. The front entrance is elegantly set off by a large front porch, brick exterior and side entry garage. Once inside the generously sized living room flows into the dining area and features a Pella sliding glass door out to the large wood-look deck, perfect for entertaining. The kitchen is outfitted with wood cabinetry and pantry providing quick access for kitchen gadgets. Enjoy the convenience of an attached, oversized 2-car garage with additional pull down storage. Privately tucked away on the opposite side of the home are 3 bedrooms and full bath. Downstairs the possibilities are endless to subdivide the huge full basement into a rec space, laundry, workshop, etc. , and offers the home's second full bathroom. While downstairs, don't miss the UPDATED ELECTRICAL, NEWER FURNACE, and TANKLESS HOTWATER SYSTEM! Please excuse the personal items, as the contents are being organized for an upcoming sale. Open House Saturday 8/10 from 12-2pm.

8. 1994-11-04
   soldstatus $104,000
9. 1994-09-15
   historical
10. 1994-04-07
    listed $106,000
11. 1992-08-24
    soldstatus $95,000
12. 1992-08-24
    soldstatus $95,500
13. 1992-08-12
    historical
14. 1991-11-09
    listed $96,900
15. 1991-10-15
    historical
16. 1991-04-14
    listed $99,900
17. 1991-04-11
    historical
18. 1990-04-11
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,763 · $314/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,562 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$799/yr (+$67/mo · 21.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,253
• − Property taxes: −$3,763
• − Insurance: −$1,718
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,102
• − Management: −$4,102
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$9,999
• Taxable income: $8,042
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,930
• After-tax cash flow: $11,171/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vermilion Local
• NCES district ID: 3904682
• Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,091
• Composite: 49.61/100
• National rank: #1981
• State rank: #316 of 656 in OH

Livability — Vermilion

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #96
• US rank: #1481

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Vermilion, OH
• County: Erie · 78,232 people
• Metro: Sandusky, OH
• Population (ZIP): 15,873
• Household income: $72,045
• Rent vs Own: 18.6% rent · 81.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 5.8

Population outlook (Lorain County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 314,924 people
• By 2030: 317,546 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 317,962 · +1.0%
• By 2050: 312,872 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 301,806 · -4.2%
• By 2100: 278,271 · -11.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lorain

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.7) · D 46.7% · R 52.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.9pp · 2024: -5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.7 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+0.3 2012: D+14.4 2008: D+17.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.76%
• Current HPI: 206.8223
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+244.0% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Contingent — FAOR
• 2026-05-26 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2026-05-09 Listed $343,700 MLSNOW
• 2026-05-09 Listed $343,700 FAOR
• 2026-05-03 Coming Soon $343,700 FAOR
• 2024-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 2024-10-08 Sold (MLS) $210,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-08-14 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2024-08-08 Listed $219,900 MLSNOW
• 1994-11-04 Sold (Public Records) $104,000 Public Records
• 1994-09-15 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1994-04-07 Listed $106,000 MLSNOW
• 1992-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $95,500 Public Records
• 1992-08-24 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MLSNOW
• 1992-08-12 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1991-11-09 Listed $96,900 MLSNOW
• 1991-10-15 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1991-04-14 Listed $99,900 MLSNOW
• 1991-04-11 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 1990-04-11 Listed $99,900 MLSNOW

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,763 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.