437 S Fox Chase Ln

Saratoga Springs, UT 84045

$430,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Built 2017 · Other · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,362/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax + insurance: −$334
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-722/mo
• Annual: $-8,669/yr
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• 1% rule: 0.55%
• Cash to close: $120,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $430k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-722 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (45.1% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $236k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#93 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Alpine District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in UT (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1175 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,326 units permitted in Utah County in 2024 (1,053 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Utah County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.