437 S Fox Chase Ln · Saratoga Springs, UT 84045

$430,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,708 sqft · Other public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2017

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.5/30.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Now offering $4,450 to Buyers for a permanent interest rate buydown to be used for closing costs. Beautiful, upgraded, townhome in Legacy Farms! This townhome has a great open floorplan w/ spacious kitchen w/ walk-in pantry, quartz counters, gas stove & stainless steel appliances. You'll love the master bedroom suite w/ his & her walk-in closets. The fully finished basement is a perfect space for those movie nights and equip w/ a built-in Dry bar and lots of storage space. This Master Planned Community includes clubhouse & pool, parks, picnic areas and the Jordan River Trail. Close to Patriot Park & all the Amenities. Square footage figures are provided as a courtesy estimate only and were obtained from Previous MLS. Buyer is advised to obtain an independent measurement.

Key facts

• Water softener
• Community amenities
• Swimming pool

Tags

• SARATOGA SPRINGS TOWNHOUSE
• UPDATED FLOORING
• WATER SOFTENER
• SPACIOUS LIVING AREAS
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $430k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-722 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $302k (29.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (45.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $236k (45.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#93 in UT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Alpine District (suburban): math 45% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #25 of 80 in UT (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1175 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,326 units permitted in Utah County in 2024 (1,053 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $43k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Utah County population projected at +49% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$74k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($417k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,219 (45.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.20%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.68% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.52×
• Total profit: $182,589
• Equity at exit: $387,378

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.68×
• Total profit: $563,549
• Equity at exit: $835,395

Cash invested: $120,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Utah: 86 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 84045

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 1175
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,362 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,255
• Tax from tax record: −$154 /mo · $1,853/yr
• Insurance: −$179
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
• Net cashflow: $-722

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,277

Max offer price $302,383

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $107,500
• Closing costs: $12,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
268 E Wren Hill Ln Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.5	2200	$2,095	$0.95	3d	1	0.16mi
138 E Crown Point Dr Saratoga Springs, UT	4.0	2.5	2044	$2,550	$1.25	3d	1	0.37mi
39 S Baker Spring Cv Saratoga Springs, UT	4.0	2.5	1800	$2,400	$1.33	21d	1	0.52mi
251 N Riverside Dr Saratoga Springs, UT	4.0	2.5	1587	$2,250	$1.42	14d	1	0.88mi
485 Pony Express Pkwy Saratoga Springs, UT	1.0–6.0	1.0–4.0	1957	$2,789	$1.43	3d	117	0.97mi
38 N Heading Ct Unit 1 Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.0	1455	$1,895	$1.30	21d	1	1.37mi
967 E Drifter Ln Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,200	$1.57	14d	1	1.39mi
1033 E Bearing Dr Saratoga Springs, UT	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1070	$1,903	$1.78	3d	25	1.39mi
986 Manifest Ln #2110 Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,200	$1.38	23d	1	1.40mi
243 N Portside Ln Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,150	$1.54	14d	1	1.40mi
1149 E Hatch Row Saratoga Springs, UT	4.0	3.0	1967	$2,395	$1.22	14d	1	1.42mi
982 E Drifter Ln Saratoga Springs, UT	3.0	3.0	1508	$2,250	$1.49	23d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $430,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $430,000 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $430,000 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $430,000 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $430,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $430,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $430,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $430,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $430,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $430,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $430,000 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $430,000 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $430,000 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-17
    listed $430,000 Active
17. 2025-03-28
    soldstatus Closed 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

18. 2025-03-28
    soldstatus Closed 31-char remark

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    There are no remarks available.

19. 2025-03-28
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

20. 2025-03-12
    historical Backup 31-char remark

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    There are no remarks available.

21. 2025-03-10
    price $435,000 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

22. 2025-03-10
    price $435,000 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

23. 2024-12-19
    price $444,999 805-char remark

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    There are no remarks available.

24. 2024-12-19
    price $444,999 31-char remark

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    There are no remarks available.

25. 2024-11-18
    price $449,000 805-char remark

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    There are no remarks available.

26. 2024-11-18
    price $449,000 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

27. 2024-10-08
    listed $455,000 Active 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    Now offering $4,450 to Buyers for a permanent interest rate buydown to be used for closing costs. Beautiful, upgraded, townhome in Legacy Farms! This townhome has a great open floorplan w/ spacious kitchen w/ walk-in pantry, quartz counters, gas stove & stainless steel appliances. You'll love the master bedroom suite w/ his & her walk-in closets. The fully finished basement is a perfect space for those movie nights and equip w/ a built-in Dry bar and lots of storage space. This Master Planned Community includes clubhouse & pool, parks, picnic areas and the Jordan River Trail. Close to Patriot Park & all the Amenities. Square footage figures are provided as a courtesy estimate only and were obtained from Previous MLS. Buyer is advised to obtain an independent measurement.

28. 2024-10-04
    listed $455,000 Active 31-char remark

    Show marketing remark (31 chars)

    There are no remarks available.

29. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus Sold
30. 2019-10-31
    soldstatus
31. 2019-10-06
    status Under Contract
32. 2019-10-02
    price $285,000
33. 2019-09-23
    price $290,000
34. 2019-09-18
    listed $295,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast UT · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,853 · $154/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,838 · $236/mo
• Expected delta: +$985/yr (+$82/mo · 53.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 98% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,087
• − Property taxes: −$1,853
• − Insurance: −$2,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
• − Management: −$2,268
• − Depreciation: −$12,509
• Taxable loss: −$16,788
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,640/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine District
• NCES district ID: 4900030
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $68,595
• Composite: 42.48/100
• National rank: #3213
• State rank: #25 of 80 in UT

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #93
• US rank: #7648

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Saratoga Springs, UT
• County: Utah County · 661,754 people
• City population: 45,429
• Metro: Provo-Orem, UT
• Population (ZIP): 45,429
• Household income: $130,331
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 476.0

Population outlook (Utah County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 693,420 people
• By 2030: 757,324 · +9.2%
• By 2040: 893,178 · +28.8%
• By 2050: 1,035,842 · +49.4%
• By 2075: 1,376,733 · +98.5%
• By 2100: 1,609,388 · +132.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Scottish 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Utah

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 28.5% · R 68.3% · Other 3.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +19.1pp toward D · 2008: -58.9pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+37.3 2012: R+78.5 2008: R+58.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 11.09%
• Current HPI: 298.0545
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.68%
• Metro: Provo-Orem, UT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.54%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in UT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$3B

Price history

+45.8% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $430,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-03-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-03-28 Sold (MLS) — WFRMLS
• 2025-03-28 Sold (MLS) — PCMLS
• 2025-03-12 Contingent — WFRMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $435,000 PCMLS
• 2025-03-10 Price Changed $435,000 WFRMLS
• 2024-12-19 Price Changed $444,999 PCMLS
• 2024-12-19 Price Changed $444,999 WFRMLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $449,000 PCMLS
• 2024-11-18 Price Changed $449,000 WFRMLS
• 2024-10-08 Listed $455,000 PCMLS
• 2024-10-04 Listed $455,000 WFRMLS
• 2019-10-31 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-31 Sold (MLS) — WFRMLS
• 2019-10-06 Pending — WFRMLS
• 2019-10-02 Price Changed $285,000 WFRMLS
• 2019-09-23 Price Changed $290,000 WFRMLS
• 2019-09-18 Listed $295,000 WFRMLS

Property tax history

+21.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,853 · -5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.