1910 Plum Creek Ln

Missouri City, TX 77489

$256,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Pending · 63 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,969/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,342
• Tax + insurance: −$653
• HOA: −$33
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-473/mo
• Annual: $-5,677/yr
• Cap rate: 4.08%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.92%
• DSCR: 0.65
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $71,680

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $256k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-473 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (32.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (23.1% below list).
• It's been on market 63 days — a 6% lower offer ($241k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (32.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $359 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgar Glover Jr El (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,545 of 4,322 statewide, top 38%, 380 students, 87% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 33% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 63 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?