149 State Rd

Rockbridge, IL 62081

$130,000D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Built 1977 · Other · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,050/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax + insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$220
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-129/yr
• Cap rate: 6.19%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.35%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $36,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $130k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-129/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $128k (1.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (19.2% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $105k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,173 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Greenfield CUSD 10 (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #490 of 919 in IL (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Greenfield Elem School (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,054 of 2,056 statewide, top 54%, 312 students, 0% FRL); Greenfield High School (math 15% / reading 15%, grade F, #462 of 693 statewide, top 68%, 119 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 38% district-wide (38 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 17% at this address vs 30% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Greenfield CUSD 10 average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 3 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.