199 Lake Harbor Rd

Brandon, MS 39047

$349,900F

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 147 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,285/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,363
• Tax + insurance: −$751
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-1,309/mo
• Annual: $-15,704/yr
• Cap rate: 2.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.45%
• DSCR: 0.45
• 1% rule: 0.51%
• Cash to close: $126,164

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $261k (25.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (34.7% below list).
• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $229k (34.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pisgah Elementary School (math 46% / reading 54%, grade D+, #61 of 375 statewide, top 17%, 507 students, 99% FRL); Pisgah High School (math 60% / reading 39%, grade D, #22 of 197 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 662 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Cap rate 2.8% vs local median 4.9% in Brandon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.