Is 199 Lake Harbor Rd in Brandon, MS a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it F with a 3.0% cap rate and $-1,244/mo modeled cash flow at a $339,900 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 199 Lake Harbor Rd?

The modeled cap rate is 3.0% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $2,363/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

🏗️ New Construction

F Composite 29.09

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +7.5/15.0
Schools +5.0/10.0
Condition / age +5.0/5.0
Cash flow +4.1/30.0
Livability +4.0/5.0
Rent growth +3.2/5.0
1% rule +0.2/10.0
DSCR +0.0/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$339,900

199 Lake Harbor Rd · Brandon, MS 39047

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily · 192 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.50 ac lot 2-car garage

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

UP TO $10,000 IN BUILDER INCENTIVES — BUYER'S CHOICE! Use it toward eligible closing costs, a rate buydown, appliance package, fence, gutters, upgrades or other available options. Welcome to 199 Lake Harbor Road in Canal Place! This beautiful new construction home offers a thoughtfully designed floor plan with an open living area, spacious kitchen and comfortable primary suite. One of the best features of this property is outside — an extra extra-large backyard that backs up to the canal, giving you additional space and a peaceful natural setting that sets this home apart. Located in the Pisgah School District and eligible for USDA financing.

Key facts

New construction
Canal
Extra large lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $340k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (20.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $236k (30.5% below list).
Recommended offer: $236k (30.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 3.0% vs local median 5.0% in Brandon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Pisgah Elementary School (math 46% / reading 54%, grade D+, #61 of 375 statewide, top 17%, 507 students, 99% FRL); Pisgah High School (math 60% / reading 39%, grade D, #22 of 197 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 754 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($299k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $236,294 (30.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.52% ✗
Cap rate: 2.98%
Cash-on-cash: -11.84%
DSCR: 0.47
GRM: 15.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $450,130
List price: $339,900
Delta: -24.49%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
346 Lake Harbor Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0	1,826 (+3%)	19mo	$339,900	$186	66
344 Lake Harbor Rd	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,825 (+3%)	23mo	$339,900	$186	62
194 Lake Harbor Rd	0.81mi	4/2.0	1,760 (-0%)	6mo	$332,670	$189	59
190 Lake Harbor Rd	0.81mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,662 (-6%)	3mo	$321,500	$193	48
196 Lake Harbor Rd	0.81mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,552 (-12%)	5mo	$302,640	$195	36
110 Landry Dr	0.96mi	4/3.0	2,079 (+18%)	5mo	$429,900	$207	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -38.2%
Equity multiple: -0.21×
Total profit: $-152,374
Equity at exit: $67,116

10-year hold

IRR: -57.8%
Equity multiple: -0.87×
Total profit: $-235,536
Equity at exit: $38,919

Cash invested: $126,036 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 4 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply: 8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $331,285 ($190/sqft)
Median days on market: 426 d
This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +33.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39047

Home prices YoY: -32.6%
Rents YoY: 2.9%
Active inventory: 754
Price-to-rent: 12.0×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $2,363 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$2,361
Tax est. 1.5%: −$563 /mo · $6,752/yr
Insurance: −$188
HOA: −$0
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$496
Net cashflow: $-1,244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,938

Max offer price $270,119

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-933	-5% $-1,088	+0% $-1,244	+5% $-1,400	+10% $-1,555
Rent	-10% $-1,431	-5% $-1,337	+0% $-1,244	+5% $-1,151	+10% $-1,057
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,017	-0.5pp $-1,130	base $-1,244	+0.5pp $-1,361	+1.0pp $-1,479

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $112,532
Closing costs: $13,504
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Exterior

Parking: 2-car garage with front-facing garageConcrete driveway
Security: Smoke detectors
Utilities: Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas available
Home design: Single-family houseOne storyNew construction
Construction: Brick veneer exteriorArchitectural shingle roofSlab foundationYear built by builder (new construction)
Exterior features: Front porchRear porchPatioLandscaped front yardRectangular lotCanal-front water access

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherDisposalFree-standing rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms: Primary downstairs
Flooring: ConcretePainted/stained floors
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans for cooling
Interior features: Ceiling fansDouble vanitiesEat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsKitchen islandOpen floorplanPantryPrimary bedroom on main levelSoaking tubDeadbolt locksVinyl-clad windows
Laundry & utility: Laundry on main levelWater heater

Listing history 50 events

2026-11-08

days on market $339,900 Active 192 DOM
2026-11-07

days on market $339,900 Active 191 DOM
2026-11-06

days on market $339,900 Active 190 DOM
2026-11-05

days on market $339,900 Active 189 DOM
2026-11-04

pricedays on market $339,900 Active 188 DOM
2026-11-02

days on market $349,900 Active 186 DOM
2026-11-01

days on market $349,900 Active 185 DOM
2026-10-31

days on market $349,900 Active 184 DOM
2026-10-30

days on market $349,900 Active 183 DOM
2026-10-29

days on market $349,900 Active 182 DOM
2026-10-28

days on market $349,900 Active 181 DOM
2026-10-27

days on market $349,900 Active 180 DOM
2026-10-26

days on market $349,900 Active 179 DOM
2026-10-25

days on market $349,900 Active 178 DOM
2026-10-24

days on market $349,900 Active 177 DOM
2026-10-23

days on market $349,900 Active 176 DOM
2026-10-22

days on market $349,900 Active 175 DOM
2026-10-21

days on market $349,900 Active 174 DOM
2026-10-20

days on market $349,900 Active 173 DOM
2026-10-19

days on market $349,900 Active 172 DOM
2026-10-18

days on market $349,900 Active 171 DOM
2026-10-17

days on market $349,900 Active 170 DOM
2026-10-16

days on market $349,900 Active 169 DOM
2026-10-15

days on market $349,900 Active 168 DOM
2026-10-14

days on market $349,900 Active 167 DOM
2026-10-13

days on market $349,900 Active 166 DOM
2026-10-12

days on market $349,900 Active 165 DOM
2026-10-11

days on market $349,900 Active 164 DOM
2026-10-10

days on market $349,900 Active 163 DOM
2026-10-09

days on market $349,900 Active 162 DOM
2026-10-08

days on market $349,900 Active 161 DOM
2026-10-07

days on market $349,900 Active 160 DOM
2026-10-06

days on market $349,900 Active 159 DOM
2026-10-05

days on market $349,900 Active 158 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $349,900 Active 157 DOM
2026-10-04

days on market $349,900 Active 156 DOM
2026-10-02

days on market $349,900 Active 155 DOM
2026-10-01

days on market $349,900 Active 154 DOM
2026-09-30

days on market $349,900 Active 153 DOM
2026-09-29

days on market $349,900 Active 152 DOM
2026-09-28

days on market $349,900 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-27

days on market $349,900 Active 150 DOM
2026-09-26

days on market $349,900 Active 149 DOM
2026-09-25

days on market $349,900 Active 148 DOM
2026-09-24

days on market $349,900 Active 147 DOM
2026-09-23

days on market $349,900 Active 146 DOM
2026-09-22

days on market $349,900 Active 145 DOM
2026-09-21

days on market $349,900 Active 144 DOM
2026-09-20

days on market $349,900 Active 143 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $349,900 Active 141 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $28,355
− Mortgage interest: −$25,214
− Property taxes: −$6,752
− Insurance: −$2,251
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,268
− Management: −$2,268
− Depreciation: −$13,095
Taxable loss: −$23,493

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,638
After-tax cash flow: $-9,290/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Canal Place is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a beautiful open plan and a large lot, making it a great investment opportunity.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pisgah Elementary School D+ MS #61/375 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 High Pisgah High School D MS #22/197 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Rankin County School District
NCES district ID: 2803830
Math proficiency: 56% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income: $61,867
Composite: 45.62/100
National rank: #2587
State rank: #6 of 130 in MS

A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Brandon

Score: 81/100
State rank: #3
US rank: #1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County: Rankin County · 164,317 people
City population: 79,950
Metro: Jackson, MS
Population (ZIP): 40,808
Household income: $100,347
Rent vs Own: 14.7% rent · 85.3% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 164,317 people
By 2030: 171,013 · +4.1%
By 2040: 182,723 · +11.2%
By 2050: 192,376 · +17.1%
By 2075: 209,535 · +27.5%
By 2100: 209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

2024 margin: Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing: +6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
All cycles: 2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -79.01%
Current HPI: 162.9709
Rent YoY: ▲ 2.90%
Metro: Jackson, MS
State GDP YoY: —
F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

2026-04-30 Listed $349,900 MLSU

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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