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199 Lake Harbor Rd 🏗️ New Construction
F Composite 28.97
Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • ARV discount +7.5/15.0
  • Schools +5.0/10.0
  • Condition / age +5.0/5.0
  • Cash flow +4.0/30.0
  • Livability +4.0/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.2/5.0
  • 1% rule +0.2/10.0
  • DSCR +0.0/10.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$349,900

199 Lake Harbor Rd · Brandon, MS 39047
4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,767 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market
Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.50 ac lot 2-car garage
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Terrific new construction in Canal Place! Beautiful 4/2 with open plan and this one offers an extra large lot that reaches the canal. Lots of possibilities to make this one a little piece of paradise.

Key facts

  • New construction
  • Canal
  • Extra large lot

Tags

NEW CONSTRUCTIONEXTRA LARGE LOTCANAL

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…
🏗️ New construction. The $349,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $454,878.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-15k/yr) — negative.
  • To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $271k (22.6% below list).
  • To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (32.3% below list).
  • Recommended offer: $237k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
  • Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 4.7% in Brandon — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 81/100 on livability (#3 in MS, #1,514 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
  • Rankin County School District (rural): math 56% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #6 of 130 in MS (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
  • Zoned schools: Pisgah Elementary School (math 46% / reading 54%, grade D+, #61 of 375 statewide, top 17%, 507 students, 99% FRL); Pisgah High School (math 60% / reading 39%, grade D, #22 of 197 statewide, top 12%, 435 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 35% district-wide (65 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 343 units permitted in Rankin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Rankin County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($318k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer $236,935 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
  2. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
  6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
0.52% ✗
Cap rate
2.94%
Cash-on-cash
-11.98%
DSCR
0.47
GRM
16.0

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$454,878
List price
$349,900
Delta
-23.08%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
10 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
346 Lake Harbor Rd 0.27mi 4/2.0 1,826 (+3%) 16mo $339,900 $186 68
344 Lake Harbor Rd 0.29mi 4/2.0 1,825 (+3%) 20mo $339,900 $186 64
194 Lake Harbor Rd 0.81mi 4/2.0 1,760 (-0%) 4mo $332,670 $189 61
196 Lake Harbor Rd 0.81mi 3/2.0 (-1) 1,552 (-12%) 2mo $302,640 $195 38
110 Landry Dr 0.96mi 4/3.0 2,079 (+18%) 2mo $429,900 $207 34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
-38.5%
Equity multiple
-0.22×
Total profit
$-154,912
Equity at exit
$67,824
10-year hold
IRR
-58.9%
Equity multiple
-0.88×
Total profit
$-240,025
Equity at exit
$39,330

Cash invested: $127,366 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Mississippi
90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.
Methodology + full state rankings →
Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
4 active · 3 under contract
Months of supply
8.0 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$335,835 ($193/sqft)
Median days on market
334 d
This list price
100% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+33.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 39047

Home prices YoY
-32.6%
Rents YoY
2.9%
Active inventory
550
Price-to-rent
12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$2,369 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
−$2,385
Tax est. 1.5%
−$569 /mo · $6,823/yr
Insurance
−$190
HOA
−$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
−$498
Net cashflow
$-1,272

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,979
Max offer price $270,850
Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $-957 -5% $-1,115 +0% $-1,272 +5% $-1,429 +10% $-1,586
Rent -10% $-1,459 -5% $-1,365 +0% $-1,272 +5% $-1,178 +10% $-1,085
Rate -1.0pp $-1,043 -0.5pp $-1,156 base $-1,272 +0.5pp $-1,390 +1.0pp $-1,510

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$113,719
Closing costs
$13,646
Reserves months
—
Total cash needed
—

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
—
Monthly P&I
—
Monthly cashflow
—
DSCR
—
Eligible?
—

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Exterior

Parking
2-car garage with front-facing garageConcrete driveway
Security
Smoke detectors
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewerElectricity availableNatural gas available
Home design
Single-family houseOne storyNew construction
Construction
Brick veneer exteriorArchitectural shingle roofSlab foundationYear built by builder (new construction)
Exterior features
Front porchRear porchPatioLandscaped front yardRectangular lotCanal-front water access

Interior

Kitchen
DishwasherDisposalFree-standing rangeMicrowave
Bedrooms
Primary downstairs
Flooring
ConcretePainted/stained floors
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heatingCentral airCeiling fans for cooling
Interior features
Ceiling fansDouble vanitiesEat-in kitchenHigh ceilingsKitchen islandOpen floorplanPantryPrimary bedroom on main levelSoaking tubDeadbolt locksVinyl-clad windows
Laundry & utility
Laundry on main levelWater heater

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-08-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 100 DOM
  2. 2026-08-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 99 DOM
  3. 2026-08-06
    days on market $349,900 Active 98 DOM
  4. 2026-08-05
    days on market $349,900 Active 97 DOM
  5. 2026-08-04
    days on market $349,900 Active 96 DOM
  6. 2026-08-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 95 DOM
  7. 2026-07-31
    days on market $349,900 Active 92 DOM
  8. 2026-07-30
    days on market $349,900 Active 91 DOM
  9. 2026-07-29
    days on market $349,900 Active 90 DOM
  10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $349,900 Active 88 DOM
  11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $349,900 Active 86 DOM
  12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $349,900 Active 84 DOM
  13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $349,900 Active 83 DOM
  14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $349,900 Active 82 DOM
  15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $349,900 Active 79 DOM
  16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,900 Active 77 DOM
  17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $349,900 Active 76 DOM
  18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $349,900 Active 75 DOM
  19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $349,900 Active 74 DOM
  20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $349,900 Active 73 DOM
  21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $349,900 Active 72 DOM
  22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $349,900 Active 71 DOM
  23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $349,900 Active 70 DOM
  24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 69 DOM
  25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 68 DOM
  26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $349,900 Active 67 DOM
  27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $349,900 Active 66 DOM
  28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $349,900 Active 65 DOM
  29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 64 DOM
  30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $349,900 Active 63 DOM
  31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $349,900 Active 62 DOM
  32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $349,900 Active 61 DOM
  33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $349,900 Active 60 DOM
  34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,900 Active 59 DOM
  35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $349,900 Active 58 DOM
  36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $349,900 Active 57 DOM
  37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $349,900 Active 55 DOM
  38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $349,900 Active 53 DOM
  39. 2026-06-22
    days on market $349,900 Active 52 DOM
  40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $349,900 Active 49 DOM
  41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $349,900 Active 48 DOM
  42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $349,900 Active 47 DOM
  43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $349,900 Active 46 DOM
  44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $349,900 Active 44 DOM
  45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $349,900 Active 43 DOM
  46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $349,900 Active 41 DOM
  47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $349,900 Active 40 DOM
  48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $349,900 Active 39 DOM
  49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $349,900 Active 38 DOM
  50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $349,900 Active 34 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$28,432
− Mortgage interest
−$25,480
− Property taxes
−$6,823
− Insurance
−$2,274
− Repairs & maintenance
−$2,275
− Management
−$2,275
− Depreciation
−$13,233
Taxable loss
−$23,928
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
+$5,743
After-tax cash flow
$-9,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This new construction home in Canal Place is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a beautiful open plan and a large lot, making it a great investment opportunity.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Pisgah Elementary School D+ MS #61/375 Nat'l #12,529/41,679 High Pisgah High School D MS #22/197 Nat'l #5,677/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Rankin County School District
NCES district ID
2803830
Math proficiency
56% ▼ -4.00%
Reading proficiency
48% ▼ -6.00%
Median HH income
$61,867
Composite
45.62/100
National rank
#2587
State rank
#6 of 130 in MS
A Composite livability gradescore 81/100

Livability — Brandon

Score
81/100
State rank
#3
US rank
#1514

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

County
Rankin County · 164,317 people
City population
79,950
Metro
Jackson, MS
Population (ZIP)
40,808
Household income
$100,347
Rent vs Own
14.7% rent · 85.3% own
Severe rent burden
6% of renters

Population outlook (Rankin County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
164,317 people
By 2030
171,013 · +4.1%
By 2040
182,723 · +11.2%
By 2050
192,376 · +17.1%
By 2075
209,535 · +27.5%
By 2100
209,534 · +27.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (77%)
Race & ethnicity
White 77% Black 16% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
Common ancestry
Italian 4% Slovak 3% Serbian 3%
Foreign-born
3% · Canada
Languages at home
95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rankin

2024 margin
Solid R (+47.1) · D 25.9% · R 73.0% · Other 1.0%
2008→2024 swing
+6.4pp toward D · 2008: -53.5pp · 2024: -47.1pp
All cycles
2024: R+47.1 2020: R+45.4 2016: R+52.9 2012: R+51.9 2008: R+53.5

Not yet ingested

Civics
—

Price history

1 event — show timeline
  • 2026-04-30 Listed $349,900 MLSU

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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