8813 Orchard Rd

Pikesville, MD 21208

$450,000D

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · Built 1993 · SingleFamily · Pending · 7 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,237/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax + insurance: −$586
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $-389/mo
• Annual: $-4,662/yr
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $126,000

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (28.1% below list).
• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $324k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#191 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $339k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Pikesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.