8813 Orchard Rd · Pikesville, MD 21208

$450,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,588 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1993 0.50 ac lot $283/sqft · 39% above area Est $557k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wow! This beautiful like new 5 bedroom, 4 full bath home has it all. Updated kitchen, baths, paint, flooring, and more. Features 3 primary suites, lower level walk out with separate entrance, brick fireplace, open concept floor plan, and a huge 1/2 acre lot on a quiet street. Great commuter location near 695. MUST SEE!

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1993
• Listed 7 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-389 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $381k (15.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $324k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $324k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 2.6% in Pikesville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#191 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Baltimore County Public Schools (suburban): math 15% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #11 of 24 in MD (top 46%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.6%/yr); 170 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,511 units permitted in Baltimore County in 2024 (643 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $339k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $323,682 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.70%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $556,817
• List price: $450,000
• Delta: -19.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-88,892
• Equity at exit: $67,096

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-71,254
• Equity at exit: $38,908

Cash invested: $126,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21208

• Rents YoY: 5.6%
• Active inventory: 170
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,237 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,360
• Tax from tax record: −$398 /mo · $4,779/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$680
• Net cashflow: $-389

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,729

Max offer price $381,367

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,500
• Closing costs: $13,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
53 Cedarwood Cir Pikesville, MD	4.0	3.5	2214	$3,150	$1.42	43d	1	0.84mi
30 Wellspring Cir Owings Mills, MD	4.0	3.5	2200	$2,700	$1.23	43d	1	1.29mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Wow! This beautiful like new 5 bedroom, 4 full bath home has it all. Updated kitchen, baths, paint, flooring, and more. Features 3 primary suites, lower level walk out with separate entrance, brick fireplace, open concept floor plan, and a huge 1/2 acre lot on a quiet street. Great commuter location near 695. MUST SEE!

2. 2026-05-13
   listed $450,000 Active 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Wow! This beautiful like new 5 bedroom, 4 full bath home has it all. Updated kitchen, baths, paint, flooring, and more. Features 3 primary suites, lower level walk out with separate entrance, brick fireplace, open concept floor plan, and a huge 1/2 acre lot on a quiet street. Great commuter location near 695. MUST SEE!

3. 2026-04-03
   historical $450,000 320-char remark

   Show marketing remark (320 chars)

   Wow! This beautiful like new 5 bedroom, 4 full bath home has it all. Updated kitchen, baths, paint, flooring, and more. Features 3 primary suites, lower level walk out with separate entrance, brick fireplace, open concept floor plan, and a huge 1/2 acre lot on a quiet street. Great commuter location near 695. MUST SEE!

4. 2026-03-13
   soldstatus $339,000
5. 1987-08-07
   soldstatus $27,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,779 · $398/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,842 · $404/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,842
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,207
• − Property taxes: −$4,779
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,107
• − Management: −$3,107
• − Depreciation: −$13,091
• Taxable loss: −$12,700
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,048
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,614/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400120
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $66,746
• Composite: 23.17/100
• National rank: #7948
• State rank: #11 of 24 in MD

Livability — Pikesville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #191
• US rank: #8765

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pikesville, MD
• County: Baltimore County · 769,527 people
• City population: 37,276
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 37,276
• Household income: $90,131
• Rent vs Own: 33.1% rent · 66.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1588.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 885,518 people
• By 2030: 909,272 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 951,547 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 990,955 · +11.9%
• By 2075: 1,086,411 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 1,135,078 · +28.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Black 43% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Romanian 3% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.5) · D 61.0% · R 36.5% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: 24.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.5 2020: D+27.0 2016: D+17.4 2012: D+16.4 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -299.14%
• Current HPI: 237.5825
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+1536.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $450,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $339,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,779 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.