3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,175 sqft ·
Built 2025
· Townhouse
· Active
· 390 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,636/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$839
Tax + insurance
−$267
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$343
Net cashflow
$186/mo
Annual
$2,237/yr
Cap rate
7.69%
Cash-on-cash
4.99%
DSCR
1.22
1% rule
1.02%
Cash to close
$44,797
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#307 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
Troy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #257 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-AZJZCE9NNT1TJB
· Data 4 days agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29