1214 College Ave · Troy, TX 76579

$159,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,175 sqft · Townhouse · 390 Days on market

Built 2025 Est $190k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Garage
• Built 2025
• Listed 389 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $159,990

Exterior

• Parking: 1 garage space (1 total parking space)
• Home design: Single-family property (spec build); Listed as Active
• Exterior features: Spec home (Nolan at College Park plan); Address: 1214 College Ave, Troy TX 76579

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area of 1175 (listed)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $186 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Troy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#307 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment C-, amenities F.
• Troy ISD (rural): math 44% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #257 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 390 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $140,791 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 390 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.99%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $190,350
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1122 College Ave	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-0%)	2mo	$159,990	$136	96
1106 College Ave	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-0%)	2mo	$179,990	$153	95
1010 College Ave	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-0%)	2mo	$180,490	$154	93
1202 College Ave	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-0%)	7mo	$199,990	$170	93
1110 College Ave	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-0%)	5mo	$169,218	$144	93
618 Campus St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,174 (-0%)	1mo	$189,000	$161	92
1225 College Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,175 (0%)	17mo	$215,990	$184	85
1229 College Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,175 (0%)	17mo	$219,990	$187	85
1230 College Ave	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,175 (0%)	18mo	$189,990	$162	84
530 Campus St	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,175 (0%)	17mo	$179,990	$153	78
518 Campus St	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,175 (0%)	21mo	$189,990	$162	77
606 Campus St	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,175 (0%)	21mo	$219,990	$187	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,029
• Equity at exit: $23,855

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $3,170
• Equity at exit: $13,833

Cash invested: $44,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76579

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,636 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$200 /mo · $2,400/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$343
• Net cashflow: $186

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,400

Max offer price $159,990

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,998
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
522 Campus St Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1205	$1,525	$1.27	44d	1	0.11mi
618 Campus St Unit 1 Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1174	$1,500	$1.28	13d	1	0.13mi
1005 Leah Dr Unit B Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$1,400	$1.08	21d	1	0.30mi
1104 Leah Dr Unit A Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,695	$1.31	13d	1	0.36mi
120 W Main St Troy, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$825	$1.10	13d	3	0.95mi
17307 Old TX 81 Unit C Troy, TX	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,295	$1.29	14d	1	1.04mi
205 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,395	$1.13	21d	1	1.26mi
206 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	21d	1	1.28mi
203 Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1234	$1,395	$1.13	14d	1	1.28mi
204b Juniper Dr Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	13d	1	1.28mi
206 Sparrow Cv Troy, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,395	$1.05	13d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $159,990 Active 390 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   listed $159,990 Active 389 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$2,400
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − Depreciation: −$4,654
• Taxable loss: −$330
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$79
• After-tax cash flow: $2,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Troy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4843260
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $60,586
• Composite: 38.83/100
• National rank: #4110
• State rank: #257 of 826 in TX

Livability — Troy

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #6921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Troy, TX
• County: Bell County · 345,090 people
• City population: 5,448
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• Population (ZIP): 5,448
• Household income: $85,480
• Rent vs Own: 34.1% rent · 65.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 210.0

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 371,114 people
• By 2030: 389,104 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 420,592 · +13.3%
• By 2050: 447,779 · +20.7%
• By 2075: 499,130 · +34.5%
• By 2100: 505,680 · +36.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 19% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 9%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: R (+16.2) · D 41.3% · R 57.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.5pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -16.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.2 2020: R+8.5 2016: R+15.1 2012: R+16.4 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -64.05%
• Current HPI: 183.9791
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Killeen-Temple, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B