211 Carroll Dr

Fries, VA 24330

$159,900D+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · Built 1976 · SingleFamily · Pending · 143 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,209/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax + insurance: −$129
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-12/mo
• Annual: $-144/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.76%
• Cash to close: $44,772

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-144/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (24.4% below list).
• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#416 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Grayson County Public School District (rural): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #27 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Fries Elementary (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 253 students, 87% FRL); Independence Middle (math 60% / reading 73%, grade A-, #107 of 342 statewide, top 33%, 262 students, 88% FRL); Grayson County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 465 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 53% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Grayson County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?