211 Carroll Dr · Fries, VA 24330

$159,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 143 Days on market

Built 1976 0.35 ac lot ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• Appreciation +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

All brick exterior 2 story home. Home offers 3 bedrooms, 2 baths. Offering basement. Located close to town, schools, shopping and medical care. This beautiful property is located close to the New River.

Key facts

• Close to town
• Close to schools
• Brick exterior

Tags

• BRICK EXTERIOR
• BASEMENT
• CLOSE TO TOWN
• CLOSE TO SCHOOLS
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO MEDICAL CARE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-12 ($-144/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $158k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (24.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (24.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#416 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Grayson County Public School District (rural): math 68% / reading 76% proficiency, ranked #27 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Fries Elementary (math 62% / reading 77%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 253 students, 87% FRL); Grayson County High (math 82% / reading 82%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 465 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 53% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 33 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Grayson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (8.2% local appreciation)).
• Grayson County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $45k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 143 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $120,901 (24.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 143 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $66,634
• Equity at exit: $123,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.33×
• Total profit: $193,835
• Equity at exit: $246,136

Cash invested: $44,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24330

• Home prices YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 33
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,209 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$62 /mo · $743/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $157,785

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $79	-5% $33	+0% $-12	+5% $-57	+10% $-102
Rent	-10% $-107	-5% $-60	+0% $-12	+5% $36	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $69	-0.5pp $29	base $-12	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,975
• Closing costs: $4,797
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-10-15
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-21
   status Active
3. 2025-08-26
   historical
4. 2025-08-25
   price $159,900
5. 2025-06-26
   price $169,500
6. 2025-05-31
   price $179,900
7. 2025-04-29
   listed $189,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $743 · $62/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: +$568/yr (+$47/mo · 76.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,957
• − Property taxes: −$743
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$4,652
• Taxable loss: −$2,964
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$711
• After-tax cash flow: $568/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grayson County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101690
• Math proficiency: 68% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 76% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $31,429
• Composite: 59.22/100
• National rank: #942
• State rank: #27 of 131 in VA

Livability — Fries

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #17459

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fries, VA
• Population (ZIP): 2,870

Population outlook (Grayson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 14,252 people
• By 2030: 13,634 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 12,202 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 10,811 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 8,069 · -43.4%
• By 2100: 5,647 · -60.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Grayson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.2) · D 18.6% · R 80.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -62.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.2 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+57.7 2012: R+37.9 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.16%
• Current HPI: 213.619
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

-15.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Pending — TVRMLS
• 2025-09-21 Relisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-08-26 Delisted — TVRMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $159,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-06-26 Price Changed $169,500 TVRMLS
• 2025-05-31 Price Changed $179,900 TVRMLS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $189,900 TVRMLS

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $743 · -25.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.