54 Magnolia Dr

Shenandoah Shores, VA 22630

$399,000D+

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,041 sqft · Built 2003 · SingleFamily · Pending · 71 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,078/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax + insurance: −$305
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $34/mo
• Annual: $409/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.77%
• Cash to close: $111,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (22.9% below list).
• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $308k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#477 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $285k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Shenandoah Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.