54 Magnolia Dr · Shenandoah Shores, VA 22630

$399,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,041 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 71 Days on market

Built 2003 0.29 ac lot $195/sqft · 7% below area Est $428k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This beautiful home is located just moments from the Shenandoah River and includes private access to the community river lot and boat landing. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. The home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops, modern appliances, and recessed lighting. Luxury vinyl tile flooring. Step outside onto the spacious new back deck. The walkout basement offers a fourth bedroom, third full bathroom, recreation room, laundry area, bonus room, and dedicated office space. The roof replacement completed in 2019. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. Sellers will contribute $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 71 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $399k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($409/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (22.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (22.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.1% in Shenandoah Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#477 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment B+, cost of living B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Warren County Public School District (town): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #70 of 131 in VA (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.3%/yr); 284 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 170 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Warren County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 71 days — a 6% lower offer ($375k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 16y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $285k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $307,763 (22.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 71 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.37%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $427,981
• List price: $399,000
• Delta: -6.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
235 Apple Way	0.19mi	3/2.5	1,934 (-5%)	11mo	$300,000	$155	72
91 Persimmon Dr	0.12mi	3/2.5	2,128 (+4%)	19mo	$420,000	$197	70
88 Juniper Dr	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,954 (-4%)	21mo	$495,000	$253	66
214 Persimmon Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,914 (-6%)	22mo	$400,000	$209	59
357 Pine Shores Dr	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,000 (-2%)	21mo	$365,000	$183	50
93 Chestnut Hill Dr	0.43mi	3/3.0	2,188 (+7%)	23mo	$369,900	$169	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-46,397
• Equity at exit: $59,492

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $35,707
• Equity at exit: $34,498

Cash invested: $111,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22630

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 8.3%
• Active inventory: 284
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,078 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,092
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,664/yr
• Insurance: −$166
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$646
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,035

Max offer price $399,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $260	-5% $147	+0% $34	+5% $-79	+10% $-192
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-88	+0% $34	+5% $156	+10% $277
Rate	-1.0pp $235	-0.5pp $136	base $34	+0.5pp $-69	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $99,750
• Closing costs: $11,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
301 Rollason Dr Unit 1526871P Front Royal, VA	4.0	3.5	2389	$3,758	$1.57	13d	1	0.06mi
175 Easy Hollow Rd Front Royal, VA	3.0	2.5	1812	$2,200	$1.21	21d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-05-12
   price $399,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This beautiful home is located just moments from the Shenandoah River and includes private access to the community river lot and boat landing. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. The home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops, modern appliances, and recessed lighting. Luxury vinyl tile flooring. Step outside onto the spacious new back deck. The walkout basement offers a fourth bedroom, third full bathroom, recreation room, laundry area, bonus room, and dedicated office space. The roof replacement completed in 2019. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. Sellers will contribute $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs.

2. 2026-04-23
   price $415,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This beautiful home is located just moments from the Shenandoah River and includes private access to the community river lot and boat landing. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. The home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops, modern appliances, and recessed lighting. Luxury vinyl tile flooring. Step outside onto the spacious new back deck. The walkout basement offers a fourth bedroom, third full bathroom, recreation room, laundry area, bonus room, and dedicated office space. The roof replacement completed in 2019. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. Sellers will contribute $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs.

3. 2026-04-07
   price $424,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This beautiful home is located just moments from the Shenandoah River and includes private access to the community river lot and boat landing. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. The home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops, modern appliances, and recessed lighting. Luxury vinyl tile flooring. Step outside onto the spacious new back deck. The walkout basement offers a fourth bedroom, third full bathroom, recreation room, laundry area, bonus room, and dedicated office space. The roof replacement completed in 2019. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. Sellers will contribute $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs.

4. 2026-03-15
   listed $430,000 Active 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This beautiful home is located just moments from the Shenandoah River and includes private access to the community river lot and boat landing. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. The home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops, modern appliances, and recessed lighting. Luxury vinyl tile flooring. Step outside onto the spacious new back deck. The walkout basement offers a fourth bedroom, third full bathroom, recreation room, laundry area, bonus room, and dedicated office space. The roof replacement completed in 2019. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. Sellers will contribute $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs.

5. 2026-03-10
   historical $430,000 749-char remark

   Show marketing remark (749 chars)

   This beautiful home is located just moments from the Shenandoah River and includes private access to the community river lot and boat landing. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. The home features four bedrooms and three full bathrooms. The kitchen showcases quartz countertops, modern appliances, and recessed lighting. Luxury vinyl tile flooring. Step outside onto the spacious new back deck. The walkout basement offers a fourth bedroom, third full bathroom, recreation room, laundry area, bonus room, and dedicated office space. The roof replacement completed in 2019. Enjoy a peaceful rural setting while still being only minutes from town. Sellers will contribute $5,000 toward buyer’s closing costs.

6. 2021-07-21
   soldstatus $285,000
7. 2021-07-16
   soldstatus $285,000 Closed 679-char remark

   Show marketing remark (679 chars)

   The River is calling! Fantastic home located very near the Shenandoah River. Owners are afforded private access to community river lot and boat landing. Rural setting just minutes outside of town. The home provides four bedrooms and three full baths. Recently remodeled kitchen features quartz countertops, new cabinets, appliances, and recessed lighting. New Luxury Vinyl Tile flooring, fresh paint and new carpeting throughout. The back deck offers relaxation in the hot tub, with ample privacy and wooded views. The walkout basement includes the fourth bedroom, third bath, rec room, laundry, bonus room and office space. Surround sound system conveys. Roof replaced in 2019.

8. 2021-06-15
   status Pending 679-char remark

   Show marketing remark (679 chars)

   The River is calling! Fantastic home located very near the Shenandoah River. Owners are afforded private access to community river lot and boat landing. Rural setting just minutes outside of town. The home provides four bedrooms and three full baths. Recently remodeled kitchen features quartz countertops, new cabinets, appliances, and recessed lighting. New Luxury Vinyl Tile flooring, fresh paint and new carpeting throughout. The back deck offers relaxation in the hot tub, with ample privacy and wooded views. The walkout basement includes the fourth bedroom, third bath, rec room, laundry, bonus room and office space. Surround sound system conveys. Roof replaced in 2019.

9. 2021-06-10
   status Active 679-char remark

   Show marketing remark (679 chars)

   The River is calling! Fantastic home located very near the Shenandoah River. Owners are afforded private access to community river lot and boat landing. Rural setting just minutes outside of town. The home provides four bedrooms and three full baths. Recently remodeled kitchen features quartz countertops, new cabinets, appliances, and recessed lighting. New Luxury Vinyl Tile flooring, fresh paint and new carpeting throughout. The back deck offers relaxation in the hot tub, with ample privacy and wooded views. The walkout basement includes the fourth bedroom, third bath, rec room, laundry, bonus room and office space. Surround sound system conveys. Roof replaced in 2019.

10. 2021-05-10
    listed $275,000 Active 679-char remark

    Show marketing remark (679 chars)

    The River is calling! Fantastic home located very near the Shenandoah River. Owners are afforded private access to community river lot and boat landing. Rural setting just minutes outside of town. The home provides four bedrooms and three full baths. Recently remodeled kitchen features quartz countertops, new cabinets, appliances, and recessed lighting. New Luxury Vinyl Tile flooring, fresh paint and new carpeting throughout. The back deck offers relaxation in the hot tub, with ample privacy and wooded views. The walkout basement includes the fourth bedroom, third bath, rec room, laundry, bonus room and office space. Surround sound system conveys. Roof replaced in 2019.

11. 2021-05-10
    historical 679-char remark

    Show marketing remark (679 chars)

    The River is calling! Fantastic home located very near the Shenandoah River. Owners are afforded private access to community river lot and boat landing. Rural setting just minutes outside of town. The home provides four bedrooms and three full baths. Recently remodeled kitchen features quartz countertops, new cabinets, appliances, and recessed lighting. New Luxury Vinyl Tile flooring, fresh paint and new carpeting throughout. The back deck offers relaxation in the hot tub, with ample privacy and wooded views. The walkout basement includes the fourth bedroom, third bath, rec room, laundry, bonus room and office space. Surround sound system conveys. Roof replaced in 2019.

12. 2010-11-10
    historical
13. 2010-11-08
    soldstatus $115,000 Sold
14. 2010-11-08
    soldstatus $115,000
15. 2010-10-11
    status Contract
16. 2010-10-11
    historical Expired
17. 2010-09-26
    historical
18. 2010-09-21
    price $114,900
19. 2010-09-09
    status Active
20. 2010-08-21
    status Contract
21. 2010-08-13
    price $134,900
22. 2010-07-13
    listed $144,900 Active
23. 2010-07-13
    listed $114,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,664 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,272 · $273/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,608/yr (+$134/mo · 96.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,350
• − Property taxes: −$1,664
• − Insurance: −$1,995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,955
• − Management: −$2,955
• − Depreciation: −$11,607
• Taxable loss: −$6,594
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,582
• After-tax cash flow: $1,991/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Warren County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $61,504
• Composite: 49.22/100
• National rank: #2039
• State rank: #70 of 131 in VA

Livability — Shenandoah Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #477
• US rank: #20653

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime B- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shenandoah Shores, VA
• County: Warren County · 35,615 people
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• Population (ZIP): 35,615
• Household income: $84,631
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 460.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,045 people
• By 2030: 43,257 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 45,088 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 45,567 · +8.4%
• By 2075: 46,081 · +9.6%
• By 2100: 42,093 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Black 6% Two or more races 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.6% · R 68.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+35.3 2016: R+37.1 2012: R+20.5 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.82%
• Current HPI: 319.8136
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.30%
• Metro: Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+247.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $399,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $415,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $424,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-15 Listed $430,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-10 Coming Soon $430,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2021-07-16 Sold (MLS) $285,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-15 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-06-10 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2021-05-10 Listed $275,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-11-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-11-08 Sold (MLS) $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-11-08 Sold (MLS) $115,000 MRIS
• 2010-10-11 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-10-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-09-26 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-09-21 Price Changed $114,900 MRIS
• 2010-09-09 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-08-21 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-08-13 Price Changed $134,900 MRIS
• 2010-07-13 Listed $144,900 MRIS
• 2010-07-13 Listed $114,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,664 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.