535 Cox Hollow Rd

Kingsport, TN 37663

$295,700D

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,919 sqft · Built 2023 · SingleFamily · Active · 210 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,560/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,551
• Tax + insurance: −$493
• HOA: −$42
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-63/mo
• Annual: $-759/yr
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $82,796

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-759/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (13.4% below list).
• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $256k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#39 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Kingsport (urban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #26 of 139 in TN (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Kingsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?