535 Cox Hollow Rd · Kingsport, TN 37663

$295,700

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,919 sqft · SingleFamily · 210 Days on market

Built 2023 4,791 sqft lot Est $315k · 6% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.1/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern 4-Bedroom Home Built in 2023 in the Heart of Birdwell Place! Discover move-in ready comfort in this beautifully crafted 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 1,919 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Built in 2023, this nearly new property features an inviting open-concept main level with a bright living area, shaker-style cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a spacious kitchen island—enhanced by durable, modern flooring that blends style with easy maintenance. All four bedrooms are located upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with its own walk-in closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms offer excellent natural light and versatile space ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A conveniently placed upstairs laundry adds to the ease of everyday living. Outside, enjoy a low-maintenance yard and convenient driveway parking. Located in the desirable Birdwell Place community, residents appreciate low HOA fees and close proximity to shopping, dining, Warriors' Path State Park, and commuter access via I-26 and I-81. Sullivan County schools, medical facilities, and recreation are minutes away. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy modern living, outdoor access, and everyday convenience in a fast-growing Kingsport area.

Key facts

• 4,791 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $296k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-63 ($-759/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $287k (3.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (13.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (13.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.8% in Kingsport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#39 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: amenities C-, schools D, crime F.
• Kingsport (urban): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #26 of 139 in TN (top 19%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 99 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 453 units permitted in Sullivan County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sullivan County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 210 days — a 12% lower offer ($260k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $29k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $255,981 (13.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 210 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.04%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.92%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $314,716
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
701 Newtons Way	0.10mi	4/2.5	1,919 (0%)	4mo	$316,000	$165	92
567 Cox Hollow Rd	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,858 (-3%)	1mo	$310,000	$167	88
499 Cox Hollow Rd	0.03mi	4/2.5	1,858 (-3%)	9mo	$319,000	$172	86
547 Cox Hollow Rd Rd	0.06mi	4/2.5	1,821 (-5%)	20mo	$292,500	$161	72
968 Lola Ln	0.20mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,961 (+2%)	14mo	$249,900	$127	70
730 Newtons Way Way	0.16mi	4/2.5	1,829 (-5%)	23mo	$283,985	$155	66
742 Newtons Way Way	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,829 (-5%)	23mo	$286,160	$156	65
709 Newtons Way	0.11mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-9%)	14mo	$307,000	$176	64
495 Cox Hollow Rd	0.04mi	4/2.5	2,196 (+14%)	14mo	$310,000	$141	63
741 Newtons Way Way	0.18mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,749 (-9%)	23mo	$287,485	$164	53
737 Newtons Way Way	0.17mi	4/2.5	2,174 (+13%)	23mo	$302,535	$139	51
1703 Rock Springs Rd	0.68mi	4/2.0	1,768 (-8%)	7mo	$400,000	$226	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-51,881
• Equity at exit: $44,090

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-50,104
• Equity at exit: $25,567

Cash invested: $82,796 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37663

• Home prices YoY: -26.1%
• Active inventory: 99
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,560 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,551
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$370 /mo · $4,436/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $-63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,640

Max offer price $286,545

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,925
• Closing costs: $8,871
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
467 Cox Hollow Rd Kingsport, TN	4.0	2.5	1821	$2,400	$1.32	13d	1	0.08mi
702 Newtons Way Kingsport, TN	4.0	2.5	2174	$2,270	$1.04	13d	1	0.15mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $295,700 Active 210 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $295,700 Active 209 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $295,700 Active 208 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $295,700 Active 207 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,700 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,700 Active 206 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $299,700 Active 204 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,700 Active 203 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $299,700 Active 201 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $299,700 Active 200 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $299,700 Active 199 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,700 Active 198 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $299,700 Active 195 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,700 Active 194 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,700 Active 193 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,700 Active 192 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,700 Active 191 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $299,700 Active 190 DOM
19. 2026-03-10
    price $299,700 1294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1294 chars)

    Modern 4-Bedroom Home Built in 2023 in the Heart of Birdwell Place! Discover move-in ready comfort in this beautifully crafted 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 1,919 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Built in 2023, this nearly new property features an inviting open-concept main level with a bright living area, shaker-style cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a spacious kitchen island—enhanced by durable, modern flooring that blends style with easy maintenance. All four bedrooms are located upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with its own walk-in closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms offer excellent natural light and versatile space ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A conveniently placed upstairs laundry adds to the ease of everyday living. Outside, enjoy a low-maintenance yard and convenient driveway parking. Located in the desirable Birdwell Place community, residents appreciate low HOA fees and close proximity to shopping, dining, Warriors' Path State Park, and commuter access via I-26 and I-81. Sullivan County schools, medical facilities, and recreation are minutes away. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy modern living, outdoor access, and everyday convenience in a fast-growing Kingsport area.

20. 2025-12-12
    price $315,000 1294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1294 chars)

    Modern 4-Bedroom Home Built in 2023 in the Heart of Birdwell Place! Discover move-in ready comfort in this beautifully crafted 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 1,919 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Built in 2023, this nearly new property features an inviting open-concept main level with a bright living area, shaker-style cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a spacious kitchen island—enhanced by durable, modern flooring that blends style with easy maintenance. All four bedrooms are located upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with its own walk-in closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms offer excellent natural light and versatile space ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A conveniently placed upstairs laundry adds to the ease of everyday living. Outside, enjoy a low-maintenance yard and convenient driveway parking. Located in the desirable Birdwell Place community, residents appreciate low HOA fees and close proximity to shopping, dining, Warriors' Path State Park, and commuter access via I-26 and I-81. Sullivan County schools, medical facilities, and recreation are minutes away. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy modern living, outdoor access, and everyday convenience in a fast-growing Kingsport area.

21. 2025-11-21
    listed $325,000 Active 1294-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1294 chars)

    Modern 4-Bedroom Home Built in 2023 in the Heart of Birdwell Place! Discover move-in ready comfort in this beautifully crafted 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home offering 1,919 sq ft of thoughtfully designed living space. Built in 2023, this nearly new property features an inviting open-concept main level with a bright living area, shaker-style cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and a spacious kitchen island—enhanced by durable, modern flooring that blends style with easy maintenance. All four bedrooms are located upstairs, including a spacious primary suite with its own walk-in closet and private bath. The additional bedrooms offer excellent natural light and versatile space ideal for guests, a home office, or hobbies. A conveniently placed upstairs laundry adds to the ease of everyday living. Outside, enjoy a low-maintenance yard and convenient driveway parking. Located in the desirable Birdwell Place community, residents appreciate low HOA fees and close proximity to shopping, dining, Warriors' Path State Park, and commuter access via I-26 and I-81. Sullivan County schools, medical facilities, and recreation are minutes away. This is a rare opportunity to enjoy modern living, outdoor access, and everyday convenience in a fast-growing Kingsport area.

22. 2023-07-13
    soldstatus $277,575 Closed 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    The Bowman is a 2 story, 2 car garage home with 4 Bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms. This spacious 1,829 SQFT home is part of the Horton EXPRESS Collection which features 8' Ceilings, Smart Home Capabilities, Mohawk Revwood flooring, Whirlpool® black standard freestanding smooth top range, Whirlpool® black built-in dishwasher, Whirlpool® black microwave, Walk-In Closets, Granite counter tops with tile backsplash, 30'' Birchwood shaker style cabinets, energy efficient and more! Enjoy living with the country feel yet close to shopping, grocery stores, and medical assistance. Short drive to Schools, Cherokee Lake, Boone Lake, Fort Patrick Henry Lake, Bays Mountain, kayaking, hiking as well as Kingsport, Gray, Bristol, Johnson City, and Rogersville. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built.

23. 2023-06-12
    historical Active Under Contract 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    The Bowman is a 2 story, 2 car garage home with 4 Bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms. This spacious 1,829 SQFT home is part of the Horton EXPRESS Collection which features 8' Ceilings, Smart Home Capabilities, Mohawk Revwood flooring, Whirlpool® black standard freestanding smooth top range, Whirlpool® black built-in dishwasher, Whirlpool® black microwave, Walk-In Closets, Granite counter tops with tile backsplash, 30'' Birchwood shaker style cabinets, energy efficient and more! Enjoy living with the country feel yet close to shopping, grocery stores, and medical assistance. Short drive to Schools, Cherokee Lake, Boone Lake, Fort Patrick Henry Lake, Bays Mountain, kayaking, hiking as well as Kingsport, Gray, Bristol, Johnson City, and Rogersville. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built.

24. 2023-02-07
    listed $277,575 Active 884-char remark

    Show marketing remark (884 chars)

    The Bowman is a 2 story, 2 car garage home with 4 Bedrooms, 2 1/2 bathrooms. This spacious 1,829 SQFT home is part of the Horton EXPRESS Collection which features 8' Ceilings, Smart Home Capabilities, Mohawk Revwood flooring, Whirlpool® black standard freestanding smooth top range, Whirlpool® black built-in dishwasher, Whirlpool® black microwave, Walk-In Closets, Granite counter tops with tile backsplash, 30'' Birchwood shaker style cabinets, energy efficient and more! Enjoy living with the country feel yet close to shopping, grocery stores, and medical assistance. Short drive to Schools, Cherokee Lake, Boone Lake, Fort Patrick Henry Lake, Bays Mountain, kayaking, hiking as well as Kingsport, Gray, Bristol, Johnson City, and Rogersville. Pictures, photographs, colors, features, and sizes are for illustration purposes only and will vary from the homes as built.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,718
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,564
• − Property taxes: −$4,436
• − Insurance: −$1,478
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,457
• − Management: −$2,457
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,602
• Taxable loss: −$5,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,387
• After-tax cash flow: $628/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kingsport
• NCES district ID: 4702190
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,017
• Composite: 30.44/100
• National rank: #6233
• State rank: #26 of 139 in TN

Livability — Kingsport

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #6587

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Kingsport, TN
• County: Sullivan County · 121,987 people
• City population: 83,493
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• Population (ZIP): 14,230
• Household income: $76,007
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Sullivan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 157,030 people
• By 2030: 156,415 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 153,778 · -2.1%
• By 2050: 149,018 · -5.1%
• By 2075: 138,068 · -12.1%
• By 2100: 119,927 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 3% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sullivan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 22.0% · R 77.0% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -41.3pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+51.9 2016: R+56.2 2012: R+47.2 2008: R+41.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.38%
• Current HPI: 255.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Kingsport-Bristol, TN-VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+8.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $299,700 TVRMLS
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $315,000 TVRMLS
• 2025-11-21 Listed $325,000 TVRMLS
• 2023-07-13 Sold (MLS) $277,575 TVRMLS
• 2023-06-12 Contingent — TVRMLS
• 2023-02-07 Listed $277,575 TVRMLS