507 Lumberly Ln

Fayetteville, NC 28303

$147,500D-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · Built 1996 · Townhouse · Pending · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,346/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax + insurance: −$220
• HOA: −$81
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-11/mo
• Annual: $-132/yr
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• 1% rule: 0.91%
• Cash to close: $41,300

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $148k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-132/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (8.7% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $135k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponderosa Elementary (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,410 statewide, top 90%, 366 students, 99% FRL); Westover Middle (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #396 of 475 statewide, top 84%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Westover High (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #387 of 535 statewide, top 73%, 1,202 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $148k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.