507 Lumberly Ln · Fayetteville, NC 28303

$147,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,124 sqft · Townhouse public records · 55 Days on market

Built 1996 Est $134k · 10% over $81/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• ARV discount +2.9/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

-great original owner builder retiring. completed rehabbed and move in ready. Super deal priced well below market. rare opportunity to acquire a spacious grade level, low maintenance townhome with garage!! Great for owner occupant or investor

Key facts

• Garage
• Private setting
• Close to shopping

Tags

• INTERIOR TOWNHOME UNIT
• GARAGE
• FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE SETTING
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• LOW HOA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Zoning: SF10 - Single Family Res 10; Subdivision: BEAVER LODGE
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $81 (includes grounds maintenance)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage (covered)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; Residential single-family residence; Brick veneer and frame construction
• Construction: Brick veneer and frame construction
• Exterior features: Courtyard; Patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s) for additional cooling; Natural gas heating with forced air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans throughout; Walk-in closet(s); Factory-built fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level, in-unit laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $148k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-11 ($-132/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (1.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (8.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $135k (8.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.8% in Fayetteville — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#45 in NC, #4,031 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Cumberland County Schools (urban): math 32% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #126 of 178 in NC (top 71%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ponderosa Elementary (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #1,242 of 1,410 statewide, top 90%, 366 students, 99% FRL); Westover Middle (math 20% / reading 30%, grade F, #396 of 475 statewide, top 84%, 784 students, 100% FRL); Westover High (math 42% / reading 39%, grade F, #387 of 535 statewide, top 73%, 1,202 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 55% district-wide (45 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 285 active listings in the ZIP; 37 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,125 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($143k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $148k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,606 (8.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.32%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $133,756
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
241-2 Waterdown Dr. Dr	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,126 (+0%)	2mo	$132,500	$118	84
209 apt 6 Waterdown Dr #6	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,115 (-1%)	1mo	$131,000	$117	79
259 Waterdown Dr #11	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,155 (+3%)	6mo	$120,000	$104	79
208 Waterdown Dr #10	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,100 (-2%)	5mo	$120,000	$109	75
216 Waterdown Dr #10	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (-4%)	2mo	$145,000	$135	70
357 Waterdown Dr #11	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,173 (+4%)	6mo	$87,500	$75	65
309 Waterdown Dr #7	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,034 (-8%)	4mo	$87,500	$85	65
308 Waterdown Dr #12	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,226 (+9%)	2mo	$155,500	$127	60
267 Waterdown Dr #4	0.26mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,249 (+11%)	6mo	$150,000	$120	59
216 Waterdown Dr #8	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,221 (+9%)	6mo	$153,500	$126	59
216 Waterdown Dr #12	0.34mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,257 (+12%)	2mo	$150,000	$119	57
349 Waterdown Dr #8	0.49mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,205 (+7%)	6mo	$142,900	$119	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.01% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-24,536
• Equity at exit: $21,993

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-21,993
• Equity at exit: $12,753

Cash invested: $41,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28303

• Home prices YoY: -25.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 285
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$774
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,901/yr
• Insurance: −$61
• HOA: −$81
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $-11

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,360

Max offer price $145,553

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $72	-5% $31	+0% $-11	+5% $-53	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-117	-5% $-64	+0% $-11	+5% $42	+10% $95
Rate	-1.0pp $63	-0.5pp $26	base $-11	+0.5pp $-49	+1.0pp $-88

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,875
• Closing costs: $4,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 37 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
513 Lumberly Ln Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1124	$1,295	$1.15	25d	1	0.04mi
267 Waterdown Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,325	$1.01	25d	1	0.26mi
295 Warton Ln Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,325	$1.01	15d	1	0.31mi
230 Sawtooth Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,274	$1.22	15d	14	0.36mi
246 Partners Way Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,295	$1.18	25d	1	0.40mi
5414 Plateau Rd Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,595	$1.43	25d	1	0.45mi
349 Waterdown Dr #5 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,350	$1.03	25d	1	0.50mi
5410 Laramie Ct Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1446	$1,600	$1.11	15d	1	0.51mi
5200 Mawood St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1300	$1,500	$1.15	15d	1	0.51mi
3311 Woodhill Ln Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1195	$1,452	$1.21	15d	42	0.57mi
5650 Netherfield Pl Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,132	$1.10	15d	38	0.62mi
622 Dashland Dr Unit B Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	750	$940	$1.25	15d	1	0.69mi
5444 Wichita Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	714	$925	$1.30	15d	1	0.69mi
622 Dashland Dr Unit A Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	700	$835	$1.19	15d	1	0.69mi
5725 Ivanhoe Ct Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,142	$1.19	15d	6	0.70mi
2056 Wheeling St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1401	$1,595	$1.14	25d	1	0.78mi
1000 Antietam Crk Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.0–2.0	1059	$1,567	$1.48	25d	14	0.84mi
5591 Bellflower St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1273	$1,575	$1.24	15d	1	0.85mi
4981 Galveston Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.5	750	$1,050	$1.40	25d	1	0.89mi
4943 Fieldcrest Dr Unit B Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	825	$799	$0.97	25d	1	0.91mi
5508 Faith Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1106	$1,269	$1.15	15d	10	0.94mi
5508 Faith Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.5–3.0	1106	$1,306	$1.18	23d	16	0.94mi
4959 Fieldcrest Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0	1.0	850	$725	$0.85	15d	1	0.95mi
1981 Wheeling St Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,500	$1.07	25d	1	0.96mi
6033 Santa Fe Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1325	$1,500	$1.13	25d	1	1.01mi
3050 Plantation Garden Blvd Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1158	$1,512	$1.30	15d	58	1.04mi
421 Squirrel St Unit A Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	780	$900	$1.15	25d	1	1.05mi
4916 Schmidt St Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	801	$945	$1.18	25d	1	1.13mi
1025 Hirschfeld Dr Fayetteville, NC	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1112	$1,730	$1.56	15d	17	1.24mi
6213 Sabine Dr Fayetteville, NC	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,175	$1.08	25d	1	1.25mi
3374 Starboard Way Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.5	1481	$2,150	$1.45	15d	1	1.29mi
425 Windermere Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	1.0	900	$950	$1.06	25d	1	1.36mi
1160 Windham Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,250	$1.04	25d	1	1.36mi
1198 Windham Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,100	$0.92	15d	1	1.40mi
1276 N Forest Dr Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1200	$1,295	$1.08	25d	1	1.41mi
1199 Wrenwood Ct Fayetteville, NC	2.0	2.5	1224	$1,345	$1.10	25d	1	1.41mi
3330 Harbour Pointe Pl #12 Fayetteville, NC	3.0	2.0	1401	$1,700	$1.21	15d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $81 · $972/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $147,500 Pending 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $147,500 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $147,500 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $147,500 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $147,500 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $147,500 Active 49 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $147,500 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $147,500 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $147,500 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $147,500 Active 44 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $147,500 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $147,500 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $147,500 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $147,500 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $147,500 Active 36 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $147,500 Active 35 DOM
17. 2026-05-09
    status Active
18. 2026-04-15
    status Pending
19. 2026-04-01
    listed $147,500 Active
20. 2017-04-10
    soldstatus $55,000 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    -great original owner builder retiring. completed rehabbed and move in ready. Super deal priced well below market. rare opportunity to acquire a spacious grade level, low maintenance townhome with garage!! Great for owner occupant or investor

21. 2017-04-10
    soldstatus $55,000

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    -great original owner builder retiring. completed rehabbed and move in ready. Super deal priced well below market. rare opportunity to acquire a spacious grade level, low maintenance townhome with garage!! Great for owner occupant or investor

22. 2017-03-13
    listed $59,900 242-char remark

    Show marketing remark (242 chars)

    -great original owner builder retiring. completed rehabbed and move in ready. Super deal priced well below market. rare opportunity to acquire a spacious grade level, low maintenance townhome with garage!! Great for owner occupant or investor

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,153
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,262
• − Property taxes: −$1,901
• − Insurance: −$738
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − HOA: −$972
• − Depreciation: −$4,291
• Taxable loss: −$2,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $491/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700011
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,168
• Composite: 31.0/100
• National rank: #6096
• State rank: #126 of 178 in NC

Livability — Fayetteville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #45
• US rank: #4031

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fayetteville, NC
• County: Cumberland County · 265,314 people
• City population: 226,118
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 30,965
• Household income: $58,223
• Rent vs Own: 52.9% rent · 47.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1370.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 330,855 people
• By 2030: 333,523 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 335,583 · +1.4%
• By 2050: 335,325 · +1.4%
• By 2075: 342,853 · +3.6%
• By 2100: 340,698 · +3.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Black 37% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: D (+13.4) · D 56.1% · R 42.7% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 13.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.4 2020: D+16.6 2016: D+16.0 2012: D+19.7 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.14%
• Current HPI: 226.5097
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.01%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+146.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2026-04-01 Listed $147,500 LPRMLS
• 2017-04-10 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2017-04-10 Sold (MLS) $55,000 LPRMLS
• 2017-03-13 Listed $59,900 LPRMLS

Property tax history

+4.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,901 · +34.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.