427 Water Bend Way

Mexico Beach, FL 32410

$379,990D-

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,805 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 37 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,220/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax + insurance: −$633
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-872/mo
• Annual: $-10,467/yr
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.84%
• DSCR: 0.56
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $106,397

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-872 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (41.6% below list).
• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $222k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.0% in Mexico Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.