427 Water Bend Way · Mexico Beach, FL 32410

$379,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,805 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Built 2026 $211/sqft · 16% below area Est $451k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +5.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.8/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Introducing the Grayton, an expansive split floorplan from our Value collection. This new home features 4 bedrooms and 2 baths, offering ample space for the entire family. As you enter through the front door, you'll be greeted by an open living area, encompassing the great room and dining room. This open concept design creates a seamless flow and a sense of togetherness. The kitchen is a true standout, boasting an abundance of counter space, providing a spacious and practical workspace for all your culinary endeavors. The Grayton is constructed with our renowned commitment to quality. This home incorporates energy-smart features throughout. These include a digital thermostat, a heating, ven

Key facts

• Split floorplan
• Open living area
• Dining room

Tags

• SPLIT FLOORPLAN
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• GREAT ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• ABUNDANCE OF COUNTER SPACE
• ENERGY-SMART FEATURES

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $379,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family property
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,805

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home, Grayton plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-872 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $254k (33.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (41.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (41.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.5% vs local median 1.0% in Mexico Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#627 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($369k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $221,998 (41.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 42% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.58% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.84%
• DSCR: 0.56
• GRM: 14.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $450,862
• List price: $379,990
• Delta: -15.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
272 Salt Creek Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,710 (-5%)	9mo	$349,900	$205	74
235 Salt Creek Ln	0.17mi	4/2.5	1,710 (-5%)	12mo	$368,496	$215	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-9,745
• Equity at exit: $170,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $43,271
• Equity at exit: $263,316

Cash invested: $106,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32410

• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 14.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$475 /mo · $5,700/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-872

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,324

Max offer price $253,775

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $94,998
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,300	$1.58	13d	1	0.13mi
264 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1533	$2,300	$1.50	13d	1	0.13mi
231 Salt Creek Ln Port Saint Joe, FL	3.0	2.5	1460	$2,100	$1.44	13d	1	0.14mi
155 Town Village Blvd Mexico Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1121	$2,085	$1.86	13d	9	0.28mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $379,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $379,990 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $379,990 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $379,990 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $379,990 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $379,990 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $379,990 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $379,990 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $379,990 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $379,990 Active 26 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $379,990 Active 25 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $379,990 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,990 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,990 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,990 Active 19 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,990 Active 18 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $379,990 Active 17 DOM
18. 2026-05-13
    listed $379,990 Active 1377-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,640
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,285
• − Property taxes: −$5,700
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,131
• − Management: −$2,131
• − Depreciation: −$11,054
• Taxable loss: −$17,562
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,215
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,252/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Mexico Beach

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #627
• US rank: #12224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mexico Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 499

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Black 5% Two or more races 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B