5612 Hurricane Creek Rd

Vansant, VA 24656

$59,000B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Built 1981 · Other · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,067/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax + insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $439/mo
• Annual: $5,271/yr
• Cap rate: 16.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.94%
• DSCR: 2.60
• 1% rule: 1.81%
• Cash to close: $16,520

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $903 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#523 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Buchanan County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #76 of 131 in VA (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Council Elementary/Middle (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 185 students, 89% FRL); Council High (math 74% / reading 84%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 119 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 62% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Buchanan County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.