5612 Hurricane Creek Rd · Vansant, VA 24656

$59,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,100 sqft · Other public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1981 0.86 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

AFFORDABLE 3 BEDROOM, 1 BATH JIM WALTER BUILT RANCH SITUATED ON ALMOST AN ACRE IN RURAL BUCHANAN COUNTY AREA. NEW FRIDGE 2024, UPDATED SHOWER AND BATH FIXTURES, NEW WATER HEATER. NEW METAL ROOF 2020. PSA WATER, PRIVATE SEPTIC.

Key facts

• 0.86 acre lot
• Built 1981
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Residential property; Zoned R
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Shed(s); Corner lot; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating
• Interior features: Insulated windows; Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $59k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $439 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#523 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Buchanan County Public School District (rural): math 52% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #76 of 131 in VA (top 58%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Council Elementary/Middle (math 52% / reading 67%, grade B-, #536 of 1,108 statewide, top 51%, 185 students, 89% FRL); Council High (math 74% / reading 84%, grade A-, #63 of 319 statewide, top 22%, 119 students, 98% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 62% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 12 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $408 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $903 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected at -32% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,115 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.94%
• DSCR: 2.60
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.53% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $22,151
• Equity at exit: $12,754

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.56×
• Total profit: $58,769
• Equity at exit: $12,162

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24656

• Home prices YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 6
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,067 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $169/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $511

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   price $59,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   remarks 227-char remark
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $62,000 Active 10 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $62,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,000 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $62,000 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    remarks 136-char remark
15. 2026-06-03
    listed $62,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $169 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $484 · $40/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 185.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,804
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$169
• − Insurance: −$962
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,024
• − Management: −$1,024
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $4,603
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $4,167/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Buchanan County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100510
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $29,669
• Composite: 47.84/100
• National rank: #2221
• State rank: #76 of 131 in VA

Livability — Vansant

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #24092

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,664

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,160 people
• By 2030: 18,734 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 16,071 · -20.3%
• By 2050: 13,815 · -31.5%
• By 2075: 10,376 · -48.5%
• By 2100: 8,432 · -58.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (99%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 99%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.6) · D 14.5% · R 85.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -65.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.5pp · 2024: -70.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.6 2020: R+67.6 2016: R+60.4 2012: R+34.7 2008: R+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.53%
• Current HPI: 108.8925
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $62,000 SWVAR

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $169 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.