104 Private Road H4

Alton, MO 65606

$49,500B

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 149 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $936/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax + insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $397/mo
• Annual: $4,768/yr
• Cap rate: 15.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.40%
• DSCR: 2.53
• 1% rule: 1.89%
• Cash to close: $13,860

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($936 rent vs $50k).
• It's been on market 149 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($342 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#441 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Alton R-IV (rural): math 18% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #283 of 324 in MO (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 4.1% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 149 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exposed subfloor in kitchen and bath — Structural damage
• Major: Missing cabinets and fixtures in kitchen and bath — Aesthetic and functional issues
• Moderate: Weathered siding — Aesthetic and potential water infiltration
• Minor: Peeling paint — Aesthetic issue