104 Private Road H4 · Alton, MO 65606

$49,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 147 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 3.12 ac lot ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Tucked away just off Highway HH in Oregon County, this peaceful 3.12-acre m/l property offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and outdoor opportunity. Whether you're searching for a quiet hunting retreat, weekend getaway, or a future homesite, this property checks all the boxes. Recent updates include a newly sealed roof, a mini-split system, propane wall heater, and a new electric box, providing comfort and peace of mind. Rural water and a lagoon are already in place, making the property move-in ready while also offering excellent potential for future development or a new build. Located in the heart of Oregon County, you'll enjoy close access to thousands of acres of Mark Twain National Forest and the Eleven Point National Scenic Riverways--ideal for hunting, fishing, floating, and exploring the great outdoors.

Key facts

• Newly sealed roof
• 3.12-acre property
• Mini-split system

Tags

• 3.12-ACRE PROPERTY
• NEWLY SEALED ROOF
• MINI-SPLIT SYSTEM
• PROPANE WALL HEATER
• NEW ELECTRIC BOX
• RURAL WATER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $397 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($936 rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 4.2% in Alton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#441 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Alton R-IV (rural): math 18% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #283 of 324 in MO (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 59 active listings in the ZIP; 5 units permitted in Oregon County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($342 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (4.6% local appreciation)).
• Oregon County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (4.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 147 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,560 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 147 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.89% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.40%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.62% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 42.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.57×
• Total profit: $35,664
• Equity at exit: $26,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 7.24×
• Total profit: $86,498
• Equity at exit: $45,552

Cash invested: $13,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65606

• Home prices YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 59
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $936 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$260
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $742/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $397

Break-even live

Break-even rent $433

Max offer price $49,500

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,375
• Closing costs: $1,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,500 Active 147 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,500 Active 146 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,500 Active 145 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,500 Active 144 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,500 Active 142 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $49,500 Active 141 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,500 Active 138 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,500 Active 137 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,500 Active 136 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $49,500 Active 135 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $54,900 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $54,900 Active 131 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $54,900 Active 130 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $54,900 Active 129 DOM
15. 2026-03-23
    price $54,900 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Tucked away just off Highway HH in Oregon County, this peaceful 3.12-acre m/l property offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and outdoor opportunity. Whether you're searching for a quiet hunting retreat, weekend getaway, or a future homesite, this property checks all the boxes. Recent updates include a newly sealed roof, a mini-split system, propane wall heater, and a new electric box, providing comfort and peace of mind. Rural water and a lagoon are already in place, making the property move-in ready while also offering excellent potential for future development or a new build. Located in the heart of Oregon County, you'll enjoy close access to thousands of acres of Mark Twain National Forest and the Eleven Point National Scenic Riverways--ideal for hunting, fishing, floating, and exploring the great outdoors.

16. 2026-01-21
    listed $59,900 Active 834-char remark

    Show marketing remark (834 chars)

    Tucked away just off Highway HH in Oregon County, this peaceful 3.12-acre m/l property offers the perfect blend of privacy, convenience, and outdoor opportunity. Whether you're searching for a quiet hunting retreat, weekend getaway, or a future homesite, this property checks all the boxes. Recent updates include a newly sealed roof, a mini-split system, propane wall heater, and a new electric box, providing comfort and peace of mind. Rural water and a lagoon are already in place, making the property move-in ready while also offering excellent potential for future development or a new build. Located in the heart of Oregon County, you'll enjoy close access to thousands of acres of Mark Twain National Forest and the Eleven Point National Scenic Riverways--ideal for hunting, fishing, floating, and exploring the great outdoors.

17. 2025-12-05
    listed $59,900 Active
18. 2025-06-23
    status Pending
19. 2025-05-12
    status Active
20. 2025-02-13
    price $54,900
21. 2024-12-27
    price $57,900
22. 2024-10-15
    listed $59,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,773
• − Property taxes: −$742
• − Insurance: −$248
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$898
• − Management: −$898
• − Depreciation: −$1,440
• Taxable income: $4,231
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,016
• After-tax cash flow: $3,752/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate repairs and updates to its kitchen and bath, exterior, and landscaping to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed subfloor in kitchen and bath — Structural damage
• Major Missing cabinets and fixtures in kitchen and bath — Aesthetic and functional issues
• Moderate Weathered siding — Aesthetic and potential water infiltration
• Minor Peeling paint — Aesthetic issue

Value-add opportunities

• Both New flooring and cabinets in kitchen and bath — Enhances aesthetics and functionality
• Both Painting interior walls and exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property value and appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed subfloor in kitchen and bath · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing cabinets and fixtures in kitchen and bath · Aesthetic and functional issues	Major	$15,000–50,000
Weathered siding · Aesthetic and potential water infiltration	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Peeling paint · Aesthetic issue	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$33,500–118,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New flooring and cabinets in kitchen and bath — Enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both Painting interior walls and exterior siding — Improves curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances property value and appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alton R-IV
• NCES district ID: 2903060
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $29,501
• Composite: 22.1/100
• National rank: #8179
• State rank: #283 of 324 in MO

Livability — Alton

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #441
• US rank: #18027

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,540

Population outlook (Oregon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,607 people
• By 2030: 10,352 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 9,829 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 9,286 · -12.5%
• By 2075: 8,392 · -20.9%
• By 2100: 7,136 · -32.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Arabic 2% Spanish 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oregon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.1) · D 15.1% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -50.8pp toward R · 2008: -18.3pp · 2024: -69.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.1 2020: R+63.8 2016: R+60.1 2012: R+33.2 2008: R+18.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.62%
• Current HPI: 142.0523
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-8.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $54,900 SOMO
• 2026-01-21 Listed $59,900 SOMO
• 2025-12-05 Listed $59,900 SOMO
• 2025-06-23 Pending — SOMO
• 2025-05-12 Relisted — SOMO
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $54,900 SOMO
• 2024-12-27 Price Changed $57,900 SOMO
• 2024-10-15 Listed $59,900 SOMO