620 Grommet Dr

Harrisonburg, VA 22801

$445,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,353 sqft · Built 2022 · SingleFamily · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,116/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,334
• Tax + insurance: −$346
• HOA: −$48
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$444
• Net cashflow: $-1,056/mo
• Annual: $-12,672/yr
• Cap rate: 3.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.17%
• DSCR: 0.55
• 1% rule: 0.48%
• Cash to close: $124,600

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $445k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (41.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $212k (52.5% below list).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($432k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $212k (52.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#24 in VA, #666 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-.
• Rockingham County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #77 of 131 in VA (top 59%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 406 students, 53% FRL); Wilbur S. Pence Middle (math 46% / reading 64%, grade B-, #189 of 342 statewide, top 56%, 668 students, 39% FRL); Turner Ashby High (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A, #60 of 319 statewide, top 19%, 994 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.5%/yr); 196 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 683 units permitted in Rockingham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rockingham County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($72k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 52% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.