2616 Stony Point Rd

Grandyle Village, NY 14072

$269,900C-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,432 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Pending · 49 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,579/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax + insurance: −$597
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $24/mo
• Annual: $294/yr
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $75,572

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($294/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (4.5% below list).
• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $258k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#416 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grand Island Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #263 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $270k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Grandyle Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.