2616 Stony Point Rd · Grandyle Village, NY 14072

$269,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,432 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 49 Days on market

Built 1970 0.34 ac lot $188/sqft · 37% below area Est $430k · 37% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Impressive 3 bdrm, 2.5 bath ranch with an open desirable floor plan. Stunning kitchen with natural oak cabinets & hardwood flooring. Spacious bedrooms w/ updated carpeting. Attached 2 car garage. Deck leads to above ground pool, shed & large yard. Beautiful colors throughout. Updates include: Ext doors, driveway '14, o/head garage dr '13, refurbished boiler, electric box '10. Move-in excellent condition.

Key facts

• All brick ranch
• Spacious living room
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• ALL BRICK RANCH
• GLEAMING HARDWOOD FLOORS
• BRIGHT EAT-IN KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• GENEROUS CLOSET SPACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Driveway; Garage door opener; Garage storage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Asphalt roof; Brick construction
• Construction: Brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Built as an existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Baseboard heat
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Sauna; Main level primary; Bedroom on main level; Full, partially finished basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $24 ($294/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (4.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 4.5% in Grandyle Village — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#416 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Grand Island Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #263 of 590 in NY (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($262k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $157k; list at $270k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $257,886 (4.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 4% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.39%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $429,887
• List price: $269,900
• Delta: -37.22%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
182 Cardinal Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-0%)	9mo	$410,000	$287	84
424 Tracey Ln	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,432 (0%)	8mo	$279,900	$195	71
285 Tracey Ln	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,440 (+1%)	12mo	$305,000	$212	65
72 Regency Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,566 (+9%)	5mo	$365,000	$233	63
66 Regency Ct	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,352 (-6%)	20mo	$325,000	$240	55
2701 Stony Point Rd	0.17mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,596 (+12%)	18mo	$320,000	$201	53
1818 Bedell Rd	0.67mi	3/1.5	1,538 (+7%)	4mo	$250,000	$163	53
337 Tracey Ln	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,600 (+12%)	6mo	$320,000	$200	50
124 Laurie Ln	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,289 (-10%)	15mo	$320,000	$248	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-42,047
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-34,079
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14072

• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,579 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$485 /mo · $5,820/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$542
• Net cashflow: $24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,548

Max offer price $269,900

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1993 Grand Island Blvd Grand Island, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1097	$22,260	$20.28	1d	33	1.06mi
2255 Center Ter Grand Island, NY	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1057	$2,300	$2.18	1d	24	1.31mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $269,900 Pending 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 46 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $269,900 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $269,900 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $269,900 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $269,900 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $269,900 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $269,900 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $269,900 Active 767-char remark
15. 2015-08-05
    soldstatus $156,700 Closed Sale or Rented 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Impressive 3 bdrm, 2.5 bath ranch with an open desirable floor plan. Stunning kitchen with natural oak cabinets & hardwood flooring. Spacious bedrooms w/ updated carpeting. Attached 2 car garage. Deck leads to above ground pool, shed & large yard. Beautiful colors throughout. Updates include: Ext doors, driveway '14, o/head garage dr '13, refurbished boiler, electric box '10. Move-in excellent condition.

16. 2015-08-05
    soldstatus $156,700

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Impressive 3 bdrm, 2.5 bath ranch with an open desirable floor plan. Stunning kitchen with natural oak cabinets & hardwood flooring. Spacious bedrooms w/ updated carpeting. Attached 2 car garage. Deck leads to above ground pool, shed & large yard. Beautiful colors throughout. Updates include: Ext doors, driveway '14, o/head garage dr '13, refurbished boiler, electric box '10. Move-in excellent condition.

17. 2015-05-14
    status Pending Sale 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Impressive 3 bdrm, 2.5 bath ranch with an open desirable floor plan. Stunning kitchen with natural oak cabinets & hardwood flooring. Spacious bedrooms w/ updated carpeting. Attached 2 car garage. Deck leads to above ground pool, shed & large yard. Beautiful colors throughout. Updates include: Ext doors, driveway '14, o/head garage dr '13, refurbished boiler, electric box '10. Move-in excellent condition.

18. 2015-05-13
    listed $159,900 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    Impressive 3 bdrm, 2.5 bath ranch with an open desirable floor plan. Stunning kitchen with natural oak cabinets & hardwood flooring. Spacious bedrooms w/ updated carpeting. Attached 2 car garage. Deck leads to above ground pool, shed & large yard. Beautiful colors throughout. Updates include: Ext doors, driveway '14, o/head garage dr '13, refurbished boiler, electric box '10. Move-in excellent condition.

19. 2012-03-01
    listed $154,900
20. 2006-05-19
    soldstatus $133,000
21. 1997-06-23
    soldstatus $103,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,820 · $485/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,820 · $485/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,946
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$5,820
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,476
• − Management: −$2,476
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$4,145
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$995
• After-tax cash flow: $1,288/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grand Island Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3607020
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $77,014
• Composite: 49.92/100
• National rank: #1938
• State rank: #263 of 590 in NY

Livability — Grandyle Village

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #7220

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 21,488
• Household income: $115,991
• Rent vs Own: 18.4% rent · 81.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 283.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -218.87%
• Current HPI: 332.5322
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+162.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $269,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $156,700 Public Records
• 2015-08-05 Sold (MLS) $156,700 WNYREIS
• 2015-05-14 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2015-05-13 Listed $159,900 WNYREIS
• 2012-03-01 Listed $154,900 WNYREIS
• 2006-05-19 Sold (Public Records) $133,000 Public Records
• 1997-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $103,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,820 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.