451 Horse Run Rd

Bolivar, NY 14754

$74,900B+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1990 · Manufactured · Pending · 25 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $982/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax + insurance: −$126
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $257/mo
• Annual: $3,082/yr
• Cap rate: 10.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.70%
• DSCR: 1.65
• 1% rule: 1.31%
• Cash to close: $20,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $257 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($982 rent vs $75k).
• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($518 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (9.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#644 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Bolivar-Richburg Central School District (rural): math 50% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #395 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bolivar-Richburg Elementary School (math 57% / reading 52%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 346 students, 57% FRL); Bolivar-Richburg Junior-Senior High School (math 47% / reading 47%, grade D-, #1,007 of 1,100 statewide, top 93%, 341 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: 6 active listings in the ZIP; 87 units permitted in Allegany County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Allegany County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (9.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.